Caleb Wilfinger
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We’re in for another fine installment of the Red River Rivalry, as Texas and Oklahoma will meet on Saturday with massive stakes on the line. The winner essentially has a clean path ahead to the Big 12 title game, while the looser will have plenty of work to do to remain in Big 12 and College Football Playoff contention. This is a spot where the underdog could be barking in a rivalry game, but I’m more inclined to back the favorite in this contest.
Here is my Oklahoma vs Texas Same Game Parlay for tonight’s matchup, which will be televised starting at 12:00 pm ET on ABC. Also, be sure to check out our full Oklahoma vs Texas predictions.
Texas -6.5 alternate spread (+106)
Under 60.5 (-110)
Dillon Gabriel over 20.5 rushing yards (-114)
Same Game Parlay odds: +614
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate the plays. That is some of the plan here, as a Texas win and cover can correlate with the under, and I believe it also correlates with Dillon Gabriel going over his rushing yards. Let’s get into it.
Texas Longhorns -6.5 alt spread over Oklahoma Sooners (+106)
Prior to the season, I was all in on Texas to win the conference, and I won’t waver in this matchup. Steve Sarkisian’s offense is as efficient as ever, with elite talent at the skill positions and a very confident version of Quinn Ewers. Even with Texas’ season-long success on paper (15th in EPA per pass, 19th in EPA margin, 16th in points per quality possession), the Longhorns still left points on the board against Alabama and Kansas, a pair of games that they won in convincing fashion. Furthermore, Texas fields a terrific defense, sitting at 5th in passing success rate, 7th in rush success rate and 7th in net points per drive per CFB-Graphs. Dillon Gabriel and Oklahoma’s offense did struggle at times against SMU and Cincinnati, so I find it hard to believe that they’ll get going against a Texas front seven that is a havoc machine.
Not only is this bet a continued play on Texas, but I can’t look past Oklahoma’s suspect schedule, as the Sooners looked impressive against Arkansas State and Tulsa in September, but seriously struggled at times en route to a fraudulent cover against SMU. The Sooners also failed to cover against Cincinnati, despite winning the turnover battle by a significant margin. Oklahoma has serious offensive line concerns, while the Longhorns defense is certainly the best unit the Sooners will face all season long. It’s hard for me to find a path where Oklahoma keeps this within 6 points over the course of a full game, so I’m backing Texas again in what should be a fun edition of Red River.
Catch our NCAAF mega parlay for Saturday’s matchups at +1392 odds!
Under 60.5 (-110)
While I do have serious questions about the offenses that Oklahoma has played so far, the Sooners defense is undeniably improved in year 2 under Brent Venables. As of now, the metrics are still strong (28th in opponent passing success rate, 12th in EPA per pass), as Oklahoma is 2nd in opponent EPA per rush and 16th in opponent rushing success rate to this point. On the other side of the ball, while both of these teams have the capability to produce explosive plays, I expect the game to be played at a deliberate tempo with both coaching staffs and veteran quarterbacks looking to avoid making the big mistake that could swing the outcome of the half or game. I’m confident in Texas’ ability to get off the field on 3rd down consistently while Oklahoma should be able to generate some stops once they settle into the game.
We have NCAAF picks for all the biggest games this week
Dillon Gabriel over 20.5 rushing yards (-114)
Adding a prop that may not correlate with the Texas side definitely increases the value in our Same Game Parlay. However, I don’t believe that Dillon Gabriel following a similar script as Jalen Milroe (Alabama), Jason Bean (Kansas) and other quarterbacks against this Texas defense takes away from a Longhorns victory. Milroe is much more of a threat to run than Gabriel, but the Texas defensive front still forced him to abandon the pocket quicker than he would’ve liked on numerous occasions and try to pick up yards on the ground. Bean is more similar to Gabriel in stature and running ability, and he had 7 carries for 42 yards last week compared to 6 total carries in his previous 2 starts this season.
The Oklahoma quarterback isn’t shy about running the ball when he has to. In fact, considering that Gabriel has 3 games this season of at least 8 carries at 21+ rushing yards, I like our chances of getting back to the window with this prop. No additional kneel downs at the end of the game should also help matters if Texas wins by margin.
