Caleb Wilfinger
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After a long and grueling college football season, all roads have finally led to this. The National Championship game will take place on Monday, and it will feature a pair of the premier brands in the sport, as the Ohio State Buckeyes are set to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Both teams had to dig deep and make key plays when it mattered most to get through their semifinal contests, setting up a title game between programs with contrasting styles and attitudes. Kickoff can’t come soon enough! Let’s get into our Ohio State vs Notre Dame Same Game Parlay picks, with this National Championship showdown starting at 7:30 pm ET on ESPN. You can also find out our college football picks on the side and total for this matchup.
Ohio State -8.5 (-110)
Under 45.5 (-110)
Emeka Egbuka anytime touchdown scorer (-165)
Ohio State vs Notre Dame Same Game Parlay odds: +776
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Ohio State Buckeyes -8.5 over Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-110)
This is the furthest thing from a good matchup for Notre Dame on both sides of the ball. The Fighting Irish have gotten to this point thanks to their aggressive and impressive defense, as Al Golden’s unit is ranked 6th in success rate allowed, 1st in passing success rate allowed, 6th in Early Downs EPA and 4th in points per drive allowed. However, this is not a defense that is well-equipped to give Ohio State trouble, as the Irish are 53rd in rushing success rate allowed and lack the personnel on the defensive line to contain the Buckeyes’ ground game.
Furthermore, teams that have had success against Ohio State’s elite passing attack have often played a ton of Cover 2, dropping their safeties deep and keeping everything in front of them. That’s completely out of character from what Notre Dame does, as the Irish often sit in Cover 1 and utilize more man coverage than any other team at the FBS level. That aggressive style can work against the likes of Penn State, Georgia and Indiana — all teams that don’t possess an elite wide receiver — but this Ohio State receiver room is a completely different animal.
On the other side, Riley Leonard leads a Notre Dame offense that is going to have its hands full against an Ohio State defense that is tops in the nation in EPA per play, points per drive allowed, Early Downs EPA and passing success rate allowed. I’d expect Ohio State to key in on stopping Jeremiyah Love and the Irish ground game, which could put Leonard and this offense in very difficult situations on 3rd down. If the Irish get behind early, things could get ugly for this offense.
As for their opponent, Ohio State’s change in philosophy on offense has been stark in the games played in the playoff thus far, as the Buckeyes have placed more of an emphasis on getting their best skill position players in space and pushing the ball downfield more. Chip Kelly has clearly taken the Michigan loss to heart, and with it has come an Ohio State passing attack (1st in EPA per pass, 3rd in passing success rate) that is completely unleashed, with Will Howard performing at his best in the biggest moments.
The Buckeyes do have concerns on the offensive line, but they’ve been able to work around a few key injuries and hit a couple of home run plays on the ground in each of the first 2 games, which is really all they need with how elite the passing game is. Given that the Notre Dame defense just struggled to slow down a Penn State offense that did not have a single catch from a wide receiver in that game, I can’t expect the Irish to suddenly devise an effective plan to slow down the best offense in the nation.
Read our full Ohio State vs Notre Dame predictions to find out our expert’s 3-star best bet
Under 45.5 (-110)
Given that each of these coaching staffs has not been in a game of this magnitude, I’d expect a fairly conservative game script in the early going. The Irish have already been a very run-heavy team in the playoffs to this point, and we should be getting a game script that features a heavy dose of handing the ball off on early downs from the underdog here, as Marcus Freeman’s team will likely prioritize not making crucial mistakes and winning the field position battle.
Notre Dame’s best shot at keeping this game close revolves around an Under game script, but there’s also a very realistic scenario where this elite Ohio State defense (4th in success rate allowed, 1st in points per drive allowed) completely stifles a banged-up Notre Dame offense, as the injuries up front for the Irish really start to take their toll. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Ohio State raced out to an early double-digit lead and kept Notre Dame at an arm’s length for the majority of the contest, en route to a pretty convincing victory that also just stays Under this total.
Lock in our expert’s best Ohio State vs Notre Dame player prop bets for the National Championship
Emeka Egbuka anytime touchdown scorer (+145)
For the final leg of our Ohio State vs Notre Dame Same Game Parlay, I’m targeting Emeka Egbuka to score a touchdown for the 11th time this season. Fans and pundits around the country are well aware of Jeremiah Smith and his elite talent, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Smith scoring a touchdown ends up being one of the more popular bets in this game. However, I’m much more interested in Egbuka in a matchup against a Notre Dame secondary that will likely be focusing on limiting the explosive plays and mismatches that Smith can create. With that in mind, Smith’s gravity should get Egbuka plenty of looks, and he can also be used in motion and line up in plenty of areas to exploit matchups against the middle of the Notre Dame defense.
The veteran wideout has become a security blanket for his quarterback, and he was targeted numerous times on key downs against the likes of Tennessee, Oregon and Texas in three previous playoff games. While the Notre Dame secondary is a step up in class compared to those units, the Irish are still dealing with injuries and just surrendered some explosive plays to Penn State, a Nittany Lions team that has zero options at wide receiver compared to this Ohio State offense. If Smith ends up being bracketed for most of the game — which is likely what I’d expect to happen — I have complete confidence that Egbuka will be targeted at least half a dozen times in and around the red zone on Monday.
Find out our Ohio State vs Notre Dame touchdown scorer best bets for the National Championship game
