Caleb Wilfinger
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Perhaps the biggest game of the college football season to date comes in the form of the Cotton Bowl between Ohio State and Texas. The Buckeyes are flying high following a couple of blowout victories, while the Longhorns narrowly escaped against Arizona State as double-digit favorites. Those results set up a game that could end up being another lopsided Ohio State victory, but rarely have things been that simple in college football this season. This is sure to be an excellent contest and should be one of the best games of the College Football Playoff. Kickoff can’t come soon enough!
Let’s get into our Ohio State vs Texas Same Game Parlay picks, with the semifinal showdown starting at 7:30 pm ET on ESPN. You can also find out our college football picks for EVERY game during bowl season.
Ohio State -5.5 (-110)
Over 53 (-110)
Jeremiah Smith anytime touchdown scorer (-165)
Ohio State vs Texas Same Game Parlay odds: +512
Ohio State Buckeyes -5.5 over Texas Longhorns (-110)
The winner of this game will almost certainly be favored in the National Championship, and it’s hard to look at this Ohio State team and go against the now-common opinion that the Buckeyes are going to take home the sport’s top prize. Like many other analysts around college football heading into the playoff, I was skeptical of the Buckeyes’ ability to regroup and reset following what was a disastrous loss to Michigan at home. Not only was I wrong, but I was wrong in a major way, as Ryan Day’s team completely demolished Tennessee and routed top-ranked Oregon to advance to this point. It’s as if Ohio State is a completely different team from what we just saw back in November, and the Buckeyes need to be treated as such. On the other side, this is a Texas team that was extremely fortunate to make it past Arizona State, and this will be a massive step up in class for the Longhorns following a pair of victories as double-digit favorites in this tournament.
Ohio State’s change in philosophy on offense was stark in the games played in the playoff, as the Buckeyes placed more of an emphasis on getting their best skill position players in space and pushing the ball downfield more. Chip Kelly has clearly taken the Michigan loss to heart, and with it has come an Ohio State passing attack (1st in EPA per pass, 3rd in passing success rate) that is completely unleashed, with Will Howard performing at his best in the biggest moments and the likes of Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka making big plays with the ball in space. Given that the Texas defense just struggled to stop Arizona State without its best wide receiver, I can’t expect the Longhorns to suddenly devise an effective plan to slow down Ohio State. And while I do think Texas’ offense is a bit undervalued in the market heading into this game, Quinn Ewers is going to need to show me a lot more before I can trust him and this inconsistent unit to hang with the Buckeyes in what should be a track meet at the Cotton Bowl. It’s the square side, but it’s the only way I can look in this game.
Read our full Ohio State Buckeyes vs Texas Longhorns predictions for the Cotton Bowl
Over 53 (-110)
I would ordinarily lean to the under in a game of this magnitude. With that said, I can’t back an under in this game with the knowledge that we now have about this Ohio State offense. The Buckeyes were already a top-5 offense in the nation heading into the playoff, but the last 2 games have put some serious distance between them and second place. A combined 83 points against a couple of rock-solid defenses is one thing, but it’s the quick and efficient manner in which Ohio State struck that makes this unit so dangerous. Couple those recent efforts with the fact that Texas’ defense — a top-5 unit in the sport this season — has suddenly looked extremely vulnerable in consecutive weeks against Clemson and Arizona State, and you have a recipe for another 30+ point effort from the Buckeyes in this one.
On the other side, I do have questions about Texas’ ability to move the ball consistently against a stout Ohio State defense that is playing its best football of the season at the right time. However, the Longhorns’ offense (6th in EPA per play, 10th in quality drives created) should be able to generate at least a couple of explosive plays that lead to points, particularly in a negative game state. Much like how I approached the Rose Bowl, the over appears to be the right side on Friday.
Jeremiah Smith anytime touchdown scorer (-165)
For the final leg of this Cotton Bowl Same Game Parlay, I’m targeting Jeremiah Smith to score a touchdown for the fourth consecutive game. This will probably end up being one of the more popular bets in this game, but that’s not going to dissuade me from backing the best wide receiver in college football to find the end zone for a 15th time this season. Smith is simply a mismatch for any defensive secondary in college football at this point, and we just saw the all-world wideout light up the Tennessee and Oregon defenses to the tune of nearly 300 combined receiving yards and 4 total touchdowns. While the Texas secondary is a step-up in class compared to those units, the Longhorns still surrendered some explosive plays to Arizona State, even without Jordan Tyson in the lineup for the Sun Devils. Even if Smith ends up being bracketed for most of the game, I have complete confidence that he’ll be targeted at least half a dozen times in and around the red zone on Friday.
