Caleb Wilfinger
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Year in and year out, “The Game” between Ohio State and Michigan is one of the most anticipated games on the college football calendar. This season, this meeting has serious College Football Playoff implications on the line, with the winner likely headed to the CFP given that they’ll face Iowa in the Big Ten title game. Can Ohio State pull the upset, or will Michigan pick up its 3rd straight victory over its hated rival? Here is my Ohio State vs Michigan Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s matchup, which will be televised starting at 12:00 pm ET on ESPN. Also, be sure to check out our full Ohio State vs Michigan predictions.
Ohio State ML (+145)
Under 47 (-110)
J.J. McCarthy under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-170)
Same Game Parlay odds: +400
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate the plays. That is some of the plan here, as an Ohio State victory certainly correlates with J.J. McCarthy going under his passing touchdowns, which in turn correlates with the under.
Ohio State Buckeyes ML over Michigan Wolverines (+145)
There’s no doubt in my mind that Ohio State has improved considerably as the season has gone on, including a couple of dominant performances in recent weeks to bring this line down from the lookahead number of 6. There’s also the factor of Jim Harbaugh not being on the sidelines, so that could work in Ohio State’s favor as well as it relates to in-game decisions, halftime adjustments and more. It’s not lost on me that Harbaugh’s noticeable absence on the sidelines might’ve really affected JJ McCarthy under center, in addition to a lingering injury that was apparent in Michigan’s narrow victory over Maryland last week.
On the other side, the Buckeyes will have the best player on the field in Marvin Harrison Jr., who should see consistent success against Michigan’s corners, opening up avenues for Emeka Egbuka and Cade Stover to make plays over the middle of the field. Ultimately, I can’t trust the Michigan offensive line and passing game in this spot, while Ohio State is peaking at the right time. Let’s back the Buckeyes to win outright.
Under 47 (-110)
A conservative game script was already the hallmark of Jim Harbaugh and Ryan Day teams in bigger games, and I expect that characteristic to be all the more exaggerated in Saturday’s matchup where the winner all but secures a berth in the College Football Playoff. Michigan’s defense is 2nd in EPA per play and 10th in Early Downs EPA while the Buckeyes rank inside the top 20 in EPA per pass, EPA per play and Early Downs EPA (CFB-Graphs). Both of these offenses have been extremely efficient against bad teams but these coaching staffs tend to tighten up and play cautiously against similar talent level (see: how both teams handled Penn State). I’m expecting a careful and controlled game script in the first half, and even if things do open up after the break, I’m confident that the winner of this one won’t score more than 24-27 points.
We have NCAAF picks for all the biggest games this week
J.J. McCarthy under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-170)
The Wolverines offense has been extremely conservative under acting head coach Sherrone Moore, a product of an offensive line that is much worse than it has been in previous years. It also likely impacted the effectiveness and confidence of Michigan’s quarterback, who was already a player that I had major questions about in big games. Since Moore took over, McCarthy is just 19-of-31 passing with 0 touchdowns and an interception, to go along with 4 turnover-worthy throws over the last 2 weeks. Now, in steps an Ohio State defense under DC Jim Knowles that should be able to contain a Michigan offense that has a serious explosiveness problem, particularly in the passing game. All of that is music to the ears of this bettor, as I’ll be taking McCarthy under 1.5 passing touchdowns for our final leg in this parlay.
Check out all of my Week 13 NCAAF best bets
