Sam Avellone
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And just like that, we’ve reached the College Football Playoff semifinals. The first game on tap will be the Orange Bowl on Thursday night between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Penn State Nittany Lions, and we’ve got you covered with an SGP for this massive matchup that will see 1 team advance to the National Championship game. Let’s get straight to our Notre Dame vs Penn State Same Game Parlay picks, and don’t forget to check Pickswise for college football predictions on all of the remaining playoff games.
Riley Leonard (ND) over 12.5 rush attempts (+100)
Notre Dame vs Penn State first half Under 23.5 (-155)
Drew Allar (PSU) 1+ passing touchdown (-400)
Notre Dame vs Penn State Same Game Parlay odds: +375
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Riley Leonard (ND) over 12.5 rush attempts (+100)
This is a massive number for a quarterback, but at this point, we all know Riley Leonard is at his best as a runner. He has 141 carries this season, which is 11th nationally among non-running backs, meaning he averages just about 10 carries per game across Notre Dame’s 14 games. Given the injury concerns to Jeremiyah Love, I’m not sure that Love is going to get a full complement of carries in this one. If he doesn’t, that should lead to a couple more carries for Leonard – who had 14 carries for 80 yards against Georgia in the quarterfinals. For what it’s worth, Leonard averaged just over 12 attempts in all of Notre Dame’s closest games this season (6 games within 14 points) with a healthy Love in the backfield.
While Penn State hasn’t seen a quarterback quite to Leonard’s rushing ability, the Nittany Lions average more than 2.5 sacks per game, so I expect them to get to Leonard at least a couple of times here – which only helps us given the fact that sacks count as quarterback rushing stats at the college level.
Read our full Notre Dame vs Penn State predictions for the Orange Bowl in the College Football Playoff semifinals
First half Under 23.5 (-155)
These defenses have been 2 of the nation’s best at preventing opponents from crossing the 40-yard line this season, as shown by their mutual top-12 ranking in total scoring opportunities allowed outside of garbage time. When opponents happen to get into scoring range, these defenses have been excellent at limiting the number of points they put on the board – yielding fewer than 3.5 points per opportunity. That success permeates to the red zone, as Penn State and Notre Dame are 4th and 5th, respectively, in opposing red zone scoring percentage (includes field goals). Furthermore, the Nittany Lions are 1st overall in red-zone touchdown-rate allowed. Given just how good these defenses have been, I expect the offensive play-callers to approach this game conservatively to start.
Drew Allar (PSU) 1+ passing touchdown (-400)
The game plan for limiting Penn State’s offense is two-fold. First, stop its dynamic duo of running backs. Second, find Tyler Warren and make his day as difficult as possible. Notre Dame is going to do everything it can to shut down both of those avenues, but I don’t think the Irish are going to completely negate this Penn State offense. The added focus on stopping the run and always accounting for Warren should open up big-play opportunities for either Harrison Wallace III or Omari Evans, both of whom carry an average depth of target greater than 13 yards and gain at least 15.7 yards per catch. Considering 2 of Notre Dame’s best pass rushers may be less than 100% – if even playing – Drew Allar should have some extra time in the pocket to find those outside receivers.
There also may be an avenue to success for Penn State’s running backs as pass-catchers out of the backfield in red-zone situations given all the pressure Notre Dame applies to opposing quarterbacks. For what it’s worth, Allar has thrown 14 touchdowns when blitzed this season, which is at least noteworthy for this matchup against Al Golden’s blitz packages.
Make sure you also find out our Ohio State vs Texas predictions for the other College Football Playoff semifinal
