Ricky Dimon
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Bowl season of the 2023 college football campaign continues on Thursday with a 4-game slate. It includes the Pop-Tarts Bowl between the NC State Wolfpack and Kansas State Wildcats. Both programs are coming off solid regular seasons that have them ranked in the top 25. NC State (9-3) is #19; Kansas State (8-4) comes in at #25.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which will be televised starting at 5:45 pm ET on ESPN. Also be sure to check out all of our college football predictions.
Kansas State -2.5 (-105)
Avery Johnson Over 171.5 passing yards (-114)
Delbert Mimms to score a touchdown (+168)
Parlay odds: +910
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson throwing for his fair share of yards would obviously work well with a Wildcats cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing NC State running back Delbert Mimms to score a touchdown. But even if that happens, there is no reason why KSU can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Kansas State -2.5 (-105)
Like with most bowl games, opt-outs are a big factor in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. The most recent of them came from NC State linebacker Payton Wilson, an All-American. On the other side of the ball, backup-turned-starter MJ Morris hit the transfer portal a while ago. Brennan Armstrong stepped back into his starting role under center toward the end of the regular season and performed well. Still, he got benched midway through the 2023 campaign for a reason. Despite his recent success, Armstrong has thrown a total of just 11 touchdowns compared to 6 interceptions – not a particularly encouraging ratio. For Kansas State, Johnson gets the start due to Will Howard going into the portal. However, Johnson is a relatively proven commodity. The freshman is 23-of-35 for 301 yards and 3 touchdowns to go along with 225 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns on 45 keepers. Kansas State is 5-2 in its last 7 contests and 1 of its losses during this stretch is an overtime setback against College Football Playoff participant Texas. Give me KSU to cover.
Avery Johnson Over 171.5 passing yards (-114)
As mentioned above, Johnson looked good in backup duty for Howard. He will be confident heading into his first start and should have a decent matchup against NC State, which is solid but unspectacular against the pass (218.8 yards per game allowed). Taking to the air against the Wolfpack is probably the best way to operate, as they are among the best defenses in college football versus the pass (104.8 yards per contest allowed on an anemic 3.7 yards per attempt). Johnson can also do plenty of damage with his feet, but 171.5 is not a big number and I think he will exceeded that through the air at NCSU’s expense.
Delbert Mimms to score a touchdown (+168)
Mimms leads the Wolfpack with 8 rushing touchdowns; no other running back has more than 1 (Armstrong has 6). He found the endzone in 2 of the last 3 regular-season games, so he heads into the Pop-Tarts Bowl on a bit of a roll. Now the junior from Indianapolis meets a Kansas State squad that is not very good against the run – giving up 140.2 such yards per contest on 4.5 yards per carry. I expect Mimms to be the focal point of NC State’s offense on Satuday and for him to score at least once.
