Ricky Dimon
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No, a championship is not on the line. Heck, neither team can even compile a winning record for the season with a victory on Saturday. Nonetheless, it is one of the best rivalries in college football – and in all of sports. It’s Navy vs Army, and the 122nd installment of this battle between service academies. While it rarely (if ever) produces the most aesthetically pleasing football, the pageantry and patriotism more than make up for any deficiencies.
Below is our SGP for the big game, and also be sure to check out our full Navy vs Army picks on the side and total.
Navy -2.5 (-118)
Under 32.5 (-110)
Daba Fofana to score a touchdown (-105)
Parlay odds: +591
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. Daba Fofana scoring a touchdown does a little bit of both; it would obviously work well with a Navy win and cover, but it goes against the under. Whatever the case, I think all 3 components have a good chance of cashing with solid value at +591.
Navy -2.5 (-118)
The game will feature a lot of running as both team showcase the triple-option. Many bettors know about the under trend, but more on that later. Army has been the slightly better team this year, but Navy has been superior of late. The Midshipmen started 2-5 overall but have covered in their last 3 games. Those were a 10-point loss to Cincinnati, just a 3-point setback against Notre Dame and an upset road win over UCF. They are 7-4 ATS. Navy has the much better rushing defense, allowing just 93 rushing yards per game. Give me the Midshipmen to win and cover.
Under 32.5 (-110)
This matchup hasn’t gone over the total since 2005 (16 years for those counting). No, that is not a misprint. That’s why the incredibly low number – 32.5 – also isn’t a misprint. It’s also why 32.5 may not even be low enough. Dating back to 2005, in head-to-head matchups between all 3 service academies (Air Force included), the under has hit an amazing 82.6% of the time (43-9-1). Although Army is the higher-scoring team, Navy can neutralize the Black Knights with a stout run defense. Both of these teams know how to defend each other, which will make moving the ball tough on all accounts
Daba Fofana to score a touchdown (-105)
Backing anyone in a Navy vs Army game at minus money to score a touchdown seems counterintuitive. However, I will make an exception for Fofana. He has found the endzone 6 times this season and all 6 have come in the last 7 games. This stretch includes a 3-TD performance during Navy’s 53-21 rout of Tulsa. He has scored in 3 of the past 5 contests and is coming off 133-yard and 114-yard efforts against Notre Dame and UCF, respectively. Both of those teams were ranked #20 at the time. Now he faces an even more favorable matchup against Army, which is allowing a ridiculous 193.5 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per attempt. The Black Knights have surrendered 18 touchdowns on the ground.
Check out our Navy vs Army 14 best bets
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