Caleb Wilfinger
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After a long and grueling season, the College Football National Championship is finally here. I have gone 9-1 in these bowl season columns so far — bringing me to 35-20 (about 64%) since Week 2. I’ve said all season that some regression was to be expected after we cashed at a red-hot 63% rate a year ago, but we have been absolutely rolling in bowl season so let’s keep that momentum going!
With bowl season behind us, the final days of the college football season are here and we’ve got a great matchup in store. With Monday’s game rapidly approaching, it’s time to get into my best bet for the action. And remember, you can check out all of our NCAAF predictions for picks and analysis on the game from multiple angles.
Washington Huskies +5.5 vs Michigan Wolverines (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Washington +4
It certainly feels like most of the data and talking points surrounding this game are dismissive of Washington’s relative chances to pull the upset. And while that’s completely understandable — Michigan’s offensive line, ground game and defense have been dominant after all — I do think the potential path to victory for the Huskies is easier to visualize than most people think.
For starters, the Wolverines will be able to run the ball. Shocker, I know! Blake Corum and this outstanding offensive line should see success against a Washington run defense that has struggled all season long (outside the top 100 in success rate and EPA per rush). However, this is a Huskies team that is much healthier in the secondary and have generated a much better pass rush over their last 4 games. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if JJ McCarthy continues to make a couple of crucial mistakes on the biggest stage against this opportunistic defense. Michigan’s defensive numbers are gaudy, both on the page and in the advanced stats (2nd in pass success rate, 14th in EPA per rush, 2nd in net points per drive per College Football Data). However, Michigan hasn’t played a top 25 passing offense all season long, and Washington is clearly the top aerial attack in the nation. In fact, the best quarterback the Wolverines faced all season was either Jalen Milroe (a below-average passer) or Taulia Tagovailoa (a somewhat above average passer with major accuracy issues). It goes without saying that going up against Michael Penix Jr. will be a completely different animal for this defense.
Penix was absolutely elite against Texas, playing one of the best games I’ve seen from any quarterback in the last few years. The Heisman Trophy runner-up can make all the throws and he has the best receiving corps in the country at his disposal for an offense that is absolutely rolling. Considering that Michigan struggled in its only game against competent passing attack (Maryland) and that this game will be played in a dome, I have faith in Penix to put forth another terrific performance. As long as the elite Washington offensive line can keep Penix upright, there’s no reason why Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb can’t find avenues for success on Monday. Offense? Advantage Washington. Defense? Advantage Michigan. Coaching? Probably a push given how good both head coaches/coordinators are. It’s really hard to get there with the Wolverines at this number, especially since they would need to win by essentially a touchdown to cover this. At the end of the day, the market is power rating Washington as 3 points worse than an Alabama team that played quite poorly for large chunks of its semifinal game vs Michigan, and still nearly won.
I was an early adopter of this Washington team all the way back in the spring, and even I didn’t see this season coming. Simply put, this Huskies team was flatly disrespected in the betting market throughout the course of conference play, and that continued into their semifinal matchup against Texas. While the market has corrected itself a bit heading into this game (Michigan was a 6-point favorite on the lookahead), I still have this line projected as closer to a field goal than the current number. As such, I’ll take those points and roll with Washington one last time in what should be a terrific game to close out the season.
Don’t miss our full Washington Huskies vs Michigan Wolverines predictions
