Sam Avellone
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It’s not very often that we are treated to college football on Mondays, but that is exactly what we are getting during this holiday week. College football fans will rejoice when they realize they have not one, but two bowl games to enjoy on Monday – both of which will be played during the day. UT San Antonio and Coastal Carolina will start things off in the Myrtle Beach Bowl at 11:00am ET, in what will be a rare postseason home game for the Chanticleers. After the conclusion of that game, the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl will be played on the blue turf in Boise between Northern Illinois and Fresno State.
There is an angle in each of these games that I felt was worth playing, and will provide a breakdown for each of them below. Let’s get to the analysis, and don’t forget to check Pickswise daily for college football picks and CFB predictions on all of the bowl and playoff games.
Monday college football bowl best bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
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UT San Antonio Roadrunners team total Over 34.5 (-122)
The Roadrunners were humming offensively down the stretch, having scored at least 38 points in 5 of their final 6 games. They finished the regular season top 35 in scoring and top 20 in total offense while averaging 32.3 points and 446 yards per game, and should be able to continue that success against this Coastal Carolina defense. The Chanticleers weren’t very reliable defensively this season, giving up 30.6 points (105th) and 382.3 yards per game (71st) while allowing at least 34 points 5 different times. Coastal Carolina was outside the top 60 in PPA per play and points per scoring opportunity allowed over the final 5 weeks of the season, and that was with its 2 best defensive players in cornerback Matthew McDoom and linebacker Clev Lubin – both of whom have already signed with power conference teams via the transfer portal. The ‘Chants will also be without their starting quarterback and backup quarterback, which means a freshman with no collegiate experience will be under center for them. UTSA is far less affected by the transfer portal. They may be without a couple of running backs in Kevorian Barnes and Robert Henry, but the Roadrunners can rely on Brandon High Jr for production out of the backfield. He accumulated 419 yards with 7 touchdowns this season, while averaging more than 5 yards per carry. UTSA should be good for points here. Playable to 35.
Northern Illinois Huskies -3.5 over Fresno State Bulldogs (-106)
This matchup is another that consists of 2 teams heavily affected by the transfer portal. In addition to being in a coaching transition, the Bulldogs figure to be without their starting quarterback in Mikey Keene, their 3 most-targeted pass-catchers, and as many as 6 key defensive contributors – including 2 of their top 3 defensive tackles. The Huskies will also be without a few key pieces, namely their starting quarterback Ethan Hampton, their leading receiver Trayvon Rudolph, and a few defensive starters. However, Northern Illinois should still have most of its defense intact – a unit that was top 35 in PPA per play allowed and defensive success rate outside of garbage time over the final 5 weeks of the season. Offensively, the Huskies were a run-heavy unit, and that should not change in this game. In fact, we may even see an uptick in the usage of running backs Gavin Williams and Telly Johnson Jr. This is good news for the Huskies, as the ground game was the strength of their offense all season. NIU is 16th nationally in rushing, averaging more than 200 yards per game and 4.84 yards per carry, and has a great matchup on paper against a Fresno run defense that was 80th in PPA per rush and 97th in rush success rate at full strength over the final 5 weeks of the season – in addition to ranking 82nd in PFF’s tackling metric. Northern Illinois should have more to work with on both sides of the ball, so I like the Huskies to win and cover on the blue turf in Boise. Playable to -4.
