Ricky Dimon
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Thursday is a big day – at least for the sports industry – in the Bluegrass State. That’s when online sports gambling becomes legal throughout Kentucky, and it coincides perfectly with an early-week college football showdown between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. Both programs have been battle tested against some tough competition heading into this Conference USA season opener.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which will be televised starting at 7:30 pm ET on CBSSN. Also be sure to check out our full Middle Tennessee State vs Western Kentucky predictions.
Middle Tennessee State ML (+188)
Jaiden Credle Over 43.5 rushing yards (-114)
Markese Stepp to score a touchdown (-110)
Same Game Parlay odds: +854
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate the plays. That is some of the plan here, as MTSU running back Jaiden Credle racking up his fair share of rushing yards would obviously work well with a Blue Raiders victory. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing WKU running back Markese Stepp to find the endzone. But even if that happens, there is no reason why the visitors can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Middle Tennessee State ML over Western Kentucky (+188)
Middle Tennessee State is led by quarterback Nicholas Vattiato, who is also a significant threat to run the football. The Blue Raiders’ offense is considerably skewed toward the pass, but not to the extent of Western Kentucky’s. There is rain in the forecast basically all day and even if it isn’t a downpour during the game, the field will probably be soaked and slinging the football around may a bit more difficult than it normally is for these 2 teams. I have more faith in MTSU’s ground game, which not only features Vattiato but also Credle and fellow running back Frank Peasant. The Hilltoppers have rushed for just 337 yards through 4 contests and no single player on the roster has more than 101 rushing yards. Middle Tennessee State may be 1-3 so far, but it lost to Missouri by only 4 points and to Colorado State by just 8. This team is being disrespected a bit by the oddsmakers in what looks a relatively even matchup, so the MTSU money line is enticing.
Jaiden Credle Over 43.5 rushing yards (-114)
In the game Peasant missed, Credle went wild to the tune of 132 yards. Peasant is back now, so carries will be split. Still, they both had 11 rushing attempts last weekend against Colorado State and Credle went over this number (46 yards). In the past 2 contests, the sophomore has 22 carries for 178 yards and 1 touchdown. Western Kentucky’s run defense has been horrendous, allowing 226.3 yards per game on 5.1 yards per attempt. This is a great opportunity for Credle to remain on a roll.
Markese Stepp to score a touchdown (-110)
This projects to be a high-scoring affair, regardless of the conditions (the total is set at 60.5). So even if Stepp scores at least 1 touchdown for Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State should have every chance to win the game. But back to Stepp…. At 6’1’’ and 225 pounds, he is the Hilltoppers’ best option near the goal line. Ohio State predictably kept him out of the endzone a couple of weeks ago, but Stepp did manage to score once against South Florida. MTSU has already surrendered 7 TDs on the ground this season, so WKU should be able to capitalize.
