Ricky Dimon
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We have a rivalry game on our hands in Week 8 of the college football season, as the Michigan Wolverines are paying a visit to the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday night. However, gone are the days – at least temporarily – when this was a must-see matchup. Michigan State actually came out on top in both 2020 and 2021, but the 2 Big Ten programs have since gone in opposite directions. Michigan won last year’s contest 29-7 and it is a massive favorite to prevail again in 2023.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which will be televised starting at 7:30 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Michigan vs Michigan State predictions.
Michigan State +24.5 (-118)
Nathan Carter to record 70+ rushing yards (+280)
Nathan Carter to score a touchdown (+210)
Parlay odds: +907
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Nathan Carter having big night at the office would obviously work well with a Michigan State cover. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Michigan State +24.5 (-118)
This is tied for the largest spread in this matchup since 1990 and it’s simply too many points in my opinion. The only 3 instances in which this rivalry had a spread of 3 touchdowns or more resulted in Michigan State covers and history will likely repeat itself this time around. Michigan has been great so far in 2023 but has played a measly schedule en route to an unbeaten record. It’s true that Michigan State may not be any better than the rest of Michigan’s opponents on paper, but this will serve as the Spartans’ Super Bowl in a season that has already gone down the drain. The Spartans’ defense has looked much improved over the last 2 weeks; they have simply failed to close out games. It’s hard to see Sparty winning this contest outright, but it should be competitive at least in the first half and if so that will likely result in a cover given the humongous spread.
Nathan Carter to record 70+ rushing yards (+280)
Michigan State’s defense is solid, but its best defense this weekend may be simply keeping Michigan’s offense off the field. The way to do that, of course, is by running the football and controlling the clock. That will be the task at hand for Carter on Saturday, and he should be able to get the job done. The UConn transfer has racked up 529 yards on 113 carries during his first season with the Spartans. He has exceeded the 100-yard mark on 3 occasions and has gotten at least 17 rushing attempts in every single game. I expect him to get at least 20 for a third straight outing because MSU is not going to move the ball through the air on UM. Michigan is #2 in the entire nation in passing defense, allowing just 142.1 yards per game.
Nathan Carter to score a touchdown (+210)
Michigan State’s defense can keep this game close (relatively speaking), but the offense will probably have to score at least once or twice to stay within the +24.5 number. I will also rely on Carter in that department, as there is no reason to have any faith in the Spartans’ passing attack. The Wolverines have 3 times as many interceptions (9) as passing touchdowns allowed (3) so far this season. Carter has scored 4 TDs through 6 games and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him reach the endzone for a fifth time this weekend.
