Ricky Dimon
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There are 5 all-ranked showdowns in Week 10 of the college football season on Saturday, none bigger than this showdown between the LSU Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa. Alabama is 5-0 in the SEC and can secure a stranglehold on the West Division with a victory, while LSU can get back in the SEC Championship mix if the visitors pull off an upset. Deservedly, this matchup is getting primetime billing – and it is also getting Same Game Parlay treatment.
Here is my SGP for the festivities, which will be televised starting at 7:45 pm ET on CBS. Also be sure to check out our full LSU vs Alabama predictions.
Alabama ML (-144)
Jalen Milroe to record 300+ passing yards (+290)
Logan Diggs to score a touchdown (-120)
Parlay odds: +1168
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate the plays. That is some of the plan here, as Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe racking up a whole bunch of passing yards would obviously work well with an Alabama win. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing LSU running back Logan Diggs to score a touchdown. But even if that happens, there is no reason why the Tide can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Alabama ML (-144)
LSU had high hopes entering the season, including a possible College Football Playoff berth, but after losing 2 games, it is ranked 14th in the first edition of the CFP poll. That’s not to say the Tigers can’t accomplish big things, as they are still in the SEC West race heading into Saturday’s showdown with Alabama. But a 21-point loss to Florida State isn’t great and the defense did not even pretend to be competent during a 55-49 setback against Ole Miss. Alabama is still alive for everything but can’t afford another slipup after losing at home to Texas earlier in the season. I can’t see the Crimson Tide going down twice at home in the same year. It’s possible, of course, but unlikely. Head coach Nick Saban’s squad has won 6 in a row since that result. Milroe is really settling into the quarterback job and Alabama is once again pretty much dominant on the defensive side of the ball. The Tide are allowing only 16 points and 268.2 yards per game.
Jalen Milroe to record 300+ passing yards (+290)
LSU’s defense has been its weak spot, allowing on average 395 yards and 26.5 points per game. The Tigers have been especially bad against the pass, giving up 238.5 yards per contest through the air on 7.6 yards per attempt. Milroe and company should be able to take advantage. The sophomore signal-caller has thrown for 321, 238 and 220 yards over the past 3 outings, with 7 touchdown passes during this stretch. He has been picked off just twice in the last 4 games after throwing 3 INTs in the first 3. Milroe is riding high on confidence at the moment and now faces a porous secondary in LSU. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Milroe go crazy in front of the home crowd and under the primetime lights.
Logan Diggs to score a touchdown (-120)
The over/under is set at 61, so a ton of points are expected. It’s not like Alabama can’t win even if Diggs scores a touchdown. In fact, the Crimson Tide could still feel good about their chances even if Diggs finds then endzone multiple times. The junior running back has scored 6 touchdowns this season and has scored at least 1 TD in 4 consecutive contests. He has 5 TDs in total during this 4-game stretch. It’s also worth noting that Diggs has exceeded the 100-yard mark 3 times in 2023, including twice in the last 4 outings. The Boutte, Louisiana native has gotten 105 carries this year; no other LSU RB has toted the rock more than 22 times. Diggs is the dominant force in the Tigers’ backfield; with plenty of opportunities on Saturday, I expect him to provide yet another touchdown.
