Ricky Dimon
Show Bio
Bowl season of the 2023 college football season continues on Wednesday with a 4-game slate. It includes the Holiday Bowl between the Louisville Cardinals and the USC Trojans. The second half of the regular season was a nightmare for the Trojans, who stumbled to a 7-5 record. As for the Cardinals (10-3), they played for the ACC title but now have to pick themselves back up after falling to Florida State.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which will be televised starting at 8:00 pm ET on FOX. Also be sure to check out our full Louisville vs USC predictions.
USC +7 (-112)
Under 54.5 alternate total (+145)
Tahj Washington to score a touchdown (+120)
Parlay odds: +800
[promo_code type=”promoSingle” ids=”375796″ titles=”Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets! (FanDuel Single Offer)”]
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as USC receiver Tahj Washington scoring a touchdown would obviously work well with a Trojans cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also backing the under (on an alternate number) to go along with Washington’s success. But there is no reason why these plays can’t coexist. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
USC +7 (-112)
Like with most bowl games, opt-outs are a significant factor in the Holiday Bowl. In fact, “significant” would be an understatement. USC has a whole host of guys on the shelf (including quarterback Caleb Williams), while Louisville is without running back Jawhar Jordan and wide receiver Jamari Thrash. Obviously Williams’ absence is huge, but that’s why the Trojans are getting 7 points. I think a touchdown is enough, especially considering that the Cardinals’ offense was hopeless in the ACC championship against Florida State and is now missing Jordan and Thrash. It is true that USC’s defense is light years worse than Florida State’s, but the Trojans should at least be able to limit a new-look Louisville offense to a somewhat reasonable point total.
Under 54.5 alternate total (+145)
A low point total coincides nicely with a Trojans cover, because I don’t think they can keep up with Louisville in a shootout given that Williams isn’t playing. Their defense has to step up, and it can – mainly because the unit doesn’t have to face the Cardinals’ RB1 (Jordan) and WR1 (Thrash). Jordan rushed for 1,128 yards and 15 touchdowns this season; Thrash went for 858 yards on 63 catches. Quarterback Jack Plummer has been picked off 12 times in 2023 and has thrown an interception in 4 consecutive contests. The Arizona native has been victimized multiple times in 3 different games. Now that he is missing two of his most dynamic weapons, Plummer may be inclined to force a lot of passes and become even more prone to mistakes. With both offenses at well less than full strength, I’m anticipating a lower score than expected.
Tahj Washington to score a touchdown (+120)
Williams’ opt-out doesn’t help matters for Washington, but USC backup QB Miller Moss is no slouch. In limited work this year sophomore has completed 23 of 32 passes for 309 yards and 1 touchdown without throwing an interception. For whatever it’s worth, Moss has also rushed for 2 scores. He should be able to get the ball to Washington, who has 52 receptions for 963 yards and 6 touchdowns. Washington leads the Trojans in the first 2 categories and is second in the TD department, but with Brenden Rice (12 TDs) having opted out to get ready for the draft it means Washington is also the top red-zone target. Meanwhile, Louisville boasts a top-15 run defense nationally but its passing defense is nothing special. All of this points to a nice opportunity for Washington to find success – and find a touchdown.
[promo_code type=”promoSingle” ids=”381271″ titles=”Get $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets if you Don’t Win Your First Bet!”]
