Caleb Wilfinger
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Louisville and NC State have been battle-tested against some tough competition heading into this ACC showdown, but the Cardinals have looked the part of a conference dark horse, while the Wolfpack have struggled mightily on offense to this point. This is a spot where the home underdog could be barking in prime time on a Friday night, but I’m more inclined to back the road favorite in this contest.
Here is my Louisville vs NC State Same Game Parlay for tonight’s matchup, which will be televised starting at 7:00 pm ET on ESPN. Also, be sure to check out our full Louisville vs NC State predictions.
Louisville -3.5 (-105)
Under 55.5 (-110)
Brennan Armstrong under 238.5 passing yards (-110)
Same Game Parlay odds: +611
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate the plays. That is some of the plan here, as a Louisville win and cover can correlate with the under, and it certainly correlates with Brennan Armstrong staying under his passing yards prop. Let’s get into it.
Louisville Cardinals -3.5 over NC State Wolfpack (-105)
I came into the season very high on Louisville, and through the first few games of the season, the Cardinals are doing a lot of good things that the betting market has not yet caught up to. In a pretty solid ACC, Louisville will absolutely end up in the top third of it. They are playing well on both sides of the ball, and their offense is one of the most explosive in football. They are averaging 43 points per game and nearly 550 yards per game. A lot of that comes through the air on the arm of Jack Plummer, who tossed 5 touchdowns last week in a rout of Boston College.
On the other side, NC State prides itself on defense, but this Cardinals group has been extremely tough to slow down. The Wolfpack have been consistent on offense, scoring exactly 24 points in 3 of their 4 games this season. However, I think they will need more than that to keep pace with this Louisville bunch, and I’m just not sure they can do that. To this point, Brennan Armstrong and company haven’t done much that’s impressed me, and therefore I like the Cardinals to cover in this one, even in a difficult road environment.
Catch our NCAAF mega parlay for Friday’s matchups at +1133 odds!
Under 55.5 (-110)
While I do think Louisville’s offense is the best unit on the field in this game, I don’t think this is the kind of game script that will produce a ton of fireworks, particularly for the home side. NC State’s offense has been stuck in the mud for the majority of the season, and that goes for the Wolfpack’s matchups against good and bad competition alike. NC State was hardly able to get any offensive flow against UConn, and I just don’t see that changing against a Louisville defense that is 21st in opponent points per quality possession per CFB-Graphs, meaning that the Cardinals defensive unit clamps down when opponents get into scoring position. I expect Louisville to win, but it’ll be the Cardinals’ defense that’ll make crucial plays down the stretch to secure it and stay under this total.
We have NCAAF picks for all the biggest games this week
Brennan Armstrong under 238.5 passing yards (-110)
Brennan Armstrong was supposed to see great success this season after reuniting with former offensive coordinator Robert Anae. They were a great pair at Virginia a few years ago, but things have not been the same this season in the slightest. In fact, Armstrong has gone under on his passing yards and touchdown passes prop in 5 of his last 7 games dating back to last season, so the momentum hasn’t changed this fall. This Louisville defense is a middling unit against the pass, but Armstrong could barely take advantage of Virginia’s awful defense, so I’m not convinced Armstrong will show out here either. Let’s roll with another under.
