Ricky Dimon
Show Bio
The Florida State Seminoles will likely be playing for a spot in the College Football Playoff when they face the Louisville Cardinals in the ACC Championship in Charlotte, North Carolina on Saturday night. Florida State is undefeated but is without starting quarterback Jordan Travis. Louisville (10-2) is bidding for its first ACC title.
Here is my SGP for the festivities, which will be televised starting at 8:00 pm ET on ABC. Also be sure to check out our full Louisville vs Florida State predictions.
Florida state -2.5 alternate spread (-104)
Keon Coleman to score a touchdown (+148)
Jawhar Jordan Over 74.5 rushing yards (-114)
Parlay odds: +799
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate the plays. That is some of the plan here, as Florida State receiver Keon Coleman scoring a touchdown would obviously work well with a win by the Seminoles. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Louisville running back Jawhar Jordan to rack up his fair share of rushing yards. But even if that happens, there is no reason why FSU can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Florida state -2.5 alternate spread (-104)
To the surprise of basically no one, Florida State ran the table in the regular season and will position itself for a berth in the College Football Playoff if it wins on Saturday. The Seminoles took a bit of a circuitous route late in the year with Jordan Travis’ ankle injury, but Tate Rodemaker played well enough against Florida to keep them undefeated. Now it is Rodermaker who could be sidelined, as he sustained a concussion at the end of the game against the Gators. If Rodemaker can’t go, third-string QB Brock Glenn would get the nod. Whatever the case, the quarterback situation is not ideal. Nonetheless, I still think FSU is the better team. The ‘Noles boast perhaps the best receiver duo in the country at his disposal in Coleman and Johnny Wilson. They will help whoever is under center in a major way. Meanwhile, Louisville hosted in-state rival Kentucky last weekend and got upset 38-31 for its second loss of the season (previously fell at Pittsburgh 38-21). Give me a motivated Florida state squad to win by at least a field goal.
Keon Coleman to score a touchdown (+148)
What happens when you are backup quarterback (in this case either Rodemaker or Glenn)? You throw it to your best receiver – and especially to your most reliable receiver in the red zone. Coleman has hauled in a whopping 11 touchdown passes this season to go along with 46 receptions and 639 yards. At 6’4’’ and 215 pounds, he is an ideal target in the endzone. Getting him well into plus money for a TD is great value.
Jawhar Jordan Over 74.5 rushing yards (-114)
Florida State’s defense is very good, but if there is a way to beat the Seminoles it’s on the ground. They are 140.2 rushing yards per game, whereas they rank in the top 10 nationally in passing defense and come in at #7 in yards per pass attempt allowed (6.0). Jordan should be able to capitalize. He has run for at least 113 yards on 5 occasions this year and he has churned out 95 and 96 yards in 2 other games. Asking him to reach the 75-mark on Saturday certainly isn’t too much.
