Ricky Dimon
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Rivalry week in college football continues on Saturday when the Louisville Cardinals host the Kentucky Wildcats. Louisville has the ACC Championship coming up next week, but it won’t get caught looking ahead because this team wants to remain in the mix for a New Year’s Six bowl berth even if it loses to Florida State. Kentucky started the season 5-0 but has lost 5 of its last 6 games.
Here is my SGP for the festivities, which will be televised starting at 12:00 pm ET on ABC. Also be sure to check out our full Kentucky vs Louisville predictions.
Louisville -9.5 alternate spread (+106)
Jamari Thrash over 67.5 receiving yards (-114)
Devin Leary over 1.5 touchdown passes (+116)
Parlay odds: +919
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate the plays. That is some of the plan here, as Louisville receiver Jamari Thrash racking up plenty of yards would obviously work well with a big win by the Cardinals. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Kentucky QB Devin Leary to toss a couple of touchdown passes. But even if that happens, there is no reason why the home team can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Louisville -9.5 alternate spread (+106)
Louisville hosts Kentucky for the coveted Governor’s Cup and UK has won this matchup 4 straight times. However, the tide can be expected to turn in a big way starting today. The Cardinals are simply the better program – this season, at least. If not for a loss at Pittsburgh, head coach Jeff Brohm’s squad would be right in the College Football Playoff conversation. It is still in the New Year’s Six mix. Kentucky, on the other hand, is in a bit of a tailspin. The Wildcats are 1-5 in their last 6 overall, with 2 of those 5 losses coming to unranked opponents.
This is a tough matchup for the ‘Cats, too. They feature a run-heavy offense, but the Cardinals are #12 nationally in rushing defense. UK has a decent defense but has let strong offensive teams in Alabama, Tennessee and Missouri rack up a ton of yards – and points – in recent weeks. Louisville should be able to do the same. Don’t be surprised if the Cards win this one by double digits.
Jamari Thrash over 67.5 receiving yards (-114)
Jamari Thrash missed Louisville’s game against Virginia Tech earlier this month due to a wrist injury and has done nothing since. The Cardinals will be eager to get him involved again and restore his confidence heading into the ACC title game. With 2 games under his belt since returning, Thrash should be primed and ready to look like his former self. He also has an extremely favorable matchup on his hands against Kentucky, which is giving up just 109.6 rushing yards per game and is in the top 20 nationally in yards per rushing attempt allowed (3.3).
Through the air, though, the Wildcats are surrendering 238.2 yards per contest on 7.4 yards per attempt. Thrash has exceeded the 70-yard mark in 7 of 10 outings this season. Count on the junior from LaGrange, Georgia getting back on track this weekend.
Devin Leary over 1.5 touchdown passes (+116)
Kentucky is not going to have an easy time running the ball on Louisville. This is a probably a game in which Leary has to step up. The senior signal-caller has delivered 6 multi-touchdown passing performances, including 4 in the last 6 games. He has 20 TDs through the air this season as a whole. Asking him to toss 2 this week should not be too much.
Check out all today’s football predictions in our College Football Betting Guide
