Ricky Dimon
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It’s relatively slim pickings in college football this week, making this Big 12 showdown between the Kansas State Wildcats and Kansas Jayhawks one of the more intriguing matchups on Saturday. Both of these in-state rivals are 7-3 overall, find themselves in the top 25 of the College Football Playoff rankings and boast winning records in the conference.
Here is my SGP for the festivities, which will be televised starting at 7:00 pm ET on FS1. Also be sure to check out our full Kansas State vs Kansas predictions.
Kansas State -13.5 alternate spread (+126)
DJ Giddens Over 82.5 rushing yards (-114)
DJ Giddens to record 2+ touchdowns (+220)
Parlay odds: +520
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate the plays. That is the entire plan here, as Kansas State running back DJ Giddens having a big day would obviously work well with a dominant win by the Wildcats. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
That is some of the plan here, as Oregon quarterback Bo Nix throwing touchdown passes left and right would obviously work well with a big win by Oregon. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing USC QB Caleb Williams to have a nig night through the air. But even if that happens, there is no reason why the Ducks can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Kansas State -13.5 alternate spread (+126)
Kansas State has owned this rivalry matchup in recent seasons, winning the last 14 games dating back to 2008. There is no reason to think anything will change on Saturday, as head coach Chris Klieman’s crew has been rolling ever since Will Howard and the offensive line started to get in gear last month. The Wildcats are now up to seventh nationally in EPA per rush and 17th in offensive EPA margin while scoring at least 30 points in each of their last 5 games. KSU’s defense is among the best in the country against the run, which should force Jayhawks QB Cole Ballard (normally the third stringer) to beat them through the air on crucial downs. That doesn’t bode well for head coach Lance Leipold’s team.
DJ Giddens Over 82.5 rushing yards (-114)
This matchup is a good one for Kansas State as a whole and it’s an especially favorable one for Giddens from an individual standpoint. The Wildcats boast one of the best rushing attacks in the nation (14th with 202.1 yards per game). The Jayhawks haven’t been able to stop the run consistently; they rank 124th in EPA per rush allowed and 112th in EPA per play overall. KSU is one of only 20 FBS teams to gain more than 5.0 yards per carry and it averages an impressive 3.08 points per drive (11th in FBS). Giddens has exceeded this 82.5 number in 3 of the last 4 contests, including a 115-yard effort last weekend against Baylor.
DJ Giddens to record 2+ touchdowns (+220)
In addition to racking up plenty of yards, Giddens also has a good chance to find the endzone multiple times. The sophomore has scored 7 touchdowns this season and delivered a multi-TD performance less than a month ago against Houston. Kansas has allowed 22 touchdowns on the ground so far in 2023, so Giddens should be salivating over this matchup.
