Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 4 of the college football season presents fans with a buffet of ranked matchups to enjoy, but this Big Ten clash between Penn State and Iowa is one that could be flying a bit under the radar. Both teams are trending in different directions, with Iowa’s offense struggling to score and dealing with a ton of injuries while Penn State appears to be a serious contender for the College Football Playoff.
In what will be a Whiteout night in Happy Valley, will the Nittany Lions cover this big spread in what is a pretty big revenge spot for the program? We’ll have to tune in to find out. This contest kicks off at 7:30 pm ET and will be televised on CBS. But before we get started, be sure to check out all of our NCAAF content in our Week 4 Betting Guide. Let’s get into our Same Game Parlay for one of the bigger Power 5 games on this weekend’s slate.
Penn State -14.5 (-110)
Under 40 (-110)
Nick Singleton under 66.5 rushing yards (-114)
Parlay odds: +767
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Penn State Nittany Lions -14.5 (-110)
Penn State and Iowa met at Kinnick Stadium in 2021 in a battle of the unbeatens in mid-October. The Nittany Lions were in complete control of the proceedings before quarterback Sean Clifford and a number of impact players on defense left with injuries, leaving the team shorthanded and jump-starting an Iowa comeback victory. Flash forward to today, and these teams meet again as unbeatens, but the setting is different and so is the expected outcome. Iowa now gets the privilege of starting Big Ten play in one of the most hostile environments in college football: under the lights in Happy Valley during the infamous Whiteout.
Iowa’s offense isn’t known for being potent and there is reason to think the Hawkeyes will struggle against a Penn State defense that is absolutely elite, ranking 12th in unadjusted points per drive allowed. Iowa’s offense is 85th in EPA, 112th in success rate while sitting outside the top 90 in offensive efficiency. Furthermore, the Hawkeyes will also be without as much as 40% of their offensive production on Saturday, including leading their impactful tight end Luke Lachey and 2 of their top 3 running backs. Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara has also been dealing with an injury, and his play has been poor this season even when healthy.
This will be by far the biggest game of Drew Allar’s young career, but the Penn State QB has been rock-solid this season, completing 67% of his passes while leading the country in PFF’s passing grade when under pressure. Allar should be comfortable at Beaver Stadium and while Iowa’s defense has been strong to start the season, the Hawkeyes have not been truly tested by an opponent anywhere near the caliber of Penn State. Given the fact that Iowa’s offense is already missing some of its top contributors and Penn State has an added bit of revenge to dish out in front of what should be a raucous crowd, it’s hard to see the visitors keeping this game within the number.
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Under 40 (-110)
As expected, we’ve got an extremely low total for this showdown between a pair of elite defenses. Penn State and Iowa are both currently in the top 10 in opponent-adjusted defensive-efficiency, while the Hawkeyes are outside the top 90 in offensive efficiency. Furthermore, Iowa runs the ball a ton, averaging a whopping 29.1 seconds between offensive snaps. Iowa’s slow and deliberate pace mixed with its inefficiency is a bad combination against a Penn State defense that might be the best in the nation. This tenacious defensive unit under Manny Diaz should thrive playing under the lights during a Whiteout and that sets the Hawkeyes up for a low scoring output. It’s hard not to gravitate toward the under in this game despite the low total.
Check out our full Iowa vs Penn State predictions
Nick Singleton under 65.5 rushing yards (-114)
Despite being very impressed with the defense, I do have some questions about this Penn State offense, and this could be a storyline to monitor as the Nittany Lions push for the College Football Playoff. Nick Singleton’s coming-out party a season ago was during this very same Whiteout game against Minnesota, and I expect him to be prominently featured in the Penn State offense again today. However, it’s how Singleton will be used that is why I’m leaning toward the under, as the explosive running back is often targeted in the passing game as well as on the ground. Look for offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich to split Singleton’s carries with fellow RB Kaytron Allen, which gives us a bit more value in this number against a stout Iowa run defense.
You can also read our Same Game Parlay for Ohio State vs Notre Dame
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