Caleb Wilfinger
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Prior to the start of this college football season, you would’ve been hard pressed to find many fans and analysts alike who thought we’d be getting a matchup between Indiana and Notre Dame to kick off the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. And yet, this improbable and unpredictable season has led us directly to this moment, as the upstart Hoosiers are set to take on one of the biggest brands in the sport in a “battle for Indiana” on what should be a chilly Friday night in South Bend. This is sure to be an excellent contest and should be one of the best games of the weekend in what is an absolutely loaded slate of football. Kickoff can’t come soon enough!
Let’s get into our Indiana vs Notre Dame Same Game Parlay picks, which will be televised starting at 8:00 pm ET on ABC. You can also find out our college football picks for EVERY playoff game this weekend.
Indiana ML (+245)
Under 52.5 (-110)
Indiana vs Notre Dame Same Game Parlay odds: +559
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Indiana ML (+245)
All odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Both of these teams are clearly worthy of being in the field, but they each possess obvious flaws. Much has been made of Indiana’s poor strength of schedule to this point, and the Hoosiers didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory in a blowout loss to Ohio State back on November 23, their lone meeting against a team in the College Football Playoff field. With that said, this is a solid situational spot for head coach Curt Cignetti and his terrific staff, as they will have had multiple weeks to prepare for this game. Cignetti should also be able to spin the narrative in a way gives his team a bit of extra motivation, especially with how Indiana’s historic season has essentially been diminished and pushed aside by most of the national media. Therefore, we can at least expect the Hoosiers to come out with their hair on fire and get off to a quick start in the scripted portion of the game. Additionally, it’s not like Notre Dame has played a murderers’ row of opponents this season. In fact, the game that is likely the best win for Marcus Freeman’s team coming all the way back in Week 1 against a Texas A&M squad that wasn’t even starting its best quarterback (Marcel Reed) in that game.
On paper, the Irish have a strong statistical profile, particularly on defense, ranking 8th in success rate allowed and 5th in points per drive (College Football Insiders). However, it’s fair to suggest that those numbers have certainly been buoyed by a soft schedule. It was just a few weeks ago that there were some very concerning signs for Notre Dame’s defense in its most recent game against USC, in which the Irish allowed 557 yards and a whopping 7.2 yards per play to a Trojans team that had nothing to play for. With that result in mind, it would be fair to suggest that all-Big Ten quarterback Kurtis Rourke and this Indiana offense that is 1st in success rate and 2nd in opponent adjusted EPA per play could ask some questions of an Irish defense that has largely been untested by opposing offenses this season. If this game ends up being close down the stretch, it’ll likely be Notre Dame that has to deal with all of the pressure of being a considerable favorite at home and the expectation that it has to win this game against a greatly inferior program. Ultimately, the Hoosiers are a very good team that’s playing with a bit of house money and eager to get the bad taste of that disappointing Ohio State performance out of their mouths, so let’s back Cignetti and his squad to spring the outright upset to kick off this new postseason era in college football.
Read our full Indiana vs Notre Dame prediction for the first College Football Playoff game
Under 52.5 (-110)
Generally speaking, I tend to lean toward backing the Under in games of this magnitude, and my approach won’t change when looking at Friday’s matchup. For starters, the weather is not going to be conducive to a high-scoring game, with temperatures expected to be in the mid-20s with winds between 10-15 miles per hour, plus a chance of some light snow showers as well. That forecast indicates that we should get a game script that features a heavy dose of running the ball on early downs from both teams, as these coaching staffs will likely prioritize playing mistake-free football and winning the field position battle – particularly early in the game. That is an ideal script for the Under because it means that both sides should chew up plenty of clock, preventing the opposing defenses a chance to spring a turnover and set up their offense with a short field. That means settling for field goals and punting on 4th down in the opponent’s territory, even if the numbers would suggest that going for it is the better option.
In addition to the weather and game script factors, there’s also something to be said for the fact that both teams could be a bit nervous in a single elimination game. We have seen plenty of coaches keep things pretty conservative in big moments, and that could be the case for some of this game, as both of these teams will likely look to feel each other out early on and make adjustments at halftime. Quick scoring drives are unlikely to be had on Friday, so let’s back the under in what should be a close, lower-scoring contest.
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