Ricky Dimon
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It will be a familiar scene for the SEC Championship when the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide battle for conference supremacy on Saturday afternoon at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. It is unclear who will join them in the College Football Playoff if the Bulldogs prevail, but one thing is certain: it will be a lot more chaotic for the CFP committee if Alabama wins. Should the Crimson Tide triumph, either both SEC teams could be in…or neither.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which will be televised starting at 4:00 pm ET on CBS. Also be sure to check out our full Georgia vs Alabama predictions.
Georgia -9.5 alternate spread (+168)
Carson Beck Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+148)
Jalen Milroe Over 38.5 rushing yards (-114)
Parlay odds: +842
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Georgia quarterback Will Howard throwing a trio of touchdown passes would obviously work well with a big victory for the Bulldogs. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Alabama QB Jalen Milroe to do some damage with his feet. But even if that happens, there is no reason why UGA can’t get the job done. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Georgia -9.5 alternate spread (+168)
Alabama seemed to be back to its old ways with an average margin of victory of 32 points in 4 games prior to the Iron Bowl, but it did not look good against Auburn. Yes, the Crimson Tide won in miracle fashion. However, requiring a miracle against an opponent that had just gotten blown out at home by New Mexico State is most definitely not encouraging. As for the Bulldogs, they come with no such question marks. The 2-time defending National Championship have pretty much been crushing teams left and right this season. Georgia may not be quite as dominant as it was in 2021 and 2022, but it appears to be a considerably better squad than Alabama. Although ‘Bama is comfortable playing in Atlanta, this is basically a home game for UGA. I would not be surprised if the Dawgs win this one going away.
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Carson Beck Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+148)
Beck has thrown at least 3 touchdown passes in 3 games this year, including 4 against Kentucky. Asking him to throw 3 at Alabama’s expense should not be too much. The Crimson Tide have given up at least 20 points in 6 of their last 7 games – to offenses much worse than Georgia’s. Star tight end Brock Bowers and receiver Ladd McConkey sat out against Georgia Tech last weekend, so they should be well rested and 100 percent physically for the Bulldogs this weekend. Beck will be the beneficiary.
Jalen Milroe Over 38.5 rushing yards (-114)
Alabama basically ran one play against Auburn: have Milroe drop back and then tuck it and scramble. Okay, maybe the Tide had 2 plays: that and also a Hail Mary. Given that Georgia’s defense is much better than that of Auburn, I expect Milroe to be running for his life to an even greater extent on Saturday. The sophomore signal-caller rushed for 107 yards against the Tigers and recently pinned 155 on LSU. Negative yardage due to sacks is always a cause for concern when it comes to backing the over on college quarterbacks’ rushing props, but I’m not too concerned. Georgia’s pass rush is not as ferocious as it was the past 2 seasons. The Dawgs have recorded only 25 sacks this season, which is in the middle of the pack from a national standpoint (by comparison, Penn State has 49).
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