Sam Avellone
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Friday’s college football slate will be the best of the postseason thus far. Not only will we have the Cure Bowl and the Gasparilla Bowl during the day, but we also will be treated to the first playoff game in the 12-team format when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish host the Indiana Hoosiers under the lights in South Bend. There are a couple of spots I like on Friday’s card, so let’s get right to the picks – and don’t forget to check Pickswise daily for college football picks and CFB predictions for ALL of the bowl and playoff games this postseason.
College football Friday best bets
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing.
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Ohio University Bobcats -4.5 over Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-115)
The first thing you should do before betting on a non-playoff bowl game is check the coaching carousel and the transfer portal. When it comes to coaching, these teams are about even for this particular game. Tim Albin left Ohio for Charlotte, while Rich Rodriguez left Jacksonville State for West Virginia. However, Ohio seems to have a massive advantage when it relates to opt-outs and the transfer portal. As of late Thursday afternoon, no Bobcat starters have entered the transfer portal, while multiple Gamecock contributors have – namely wide receiver Cam Vaughn and multiple defensive starters. Some of the transfer portal names may suit up, but it certainly seems like Jacksonville State will be without arguably its 2 best defenders in Zechariah Poyser and Reginald Hughes – who have already committed to new schools.
Ohio and Jacksonville State rely heavily on the run, and they are very efficient when doing so. Since Week 9, both offenses are top 12 in rush rate and PPA per rush outside of garbage time, with top 25 marks in rush success rate as well. That means both run defenses are going to be tested early and often, and I believe Ohio is better equipped to handle it than Jacksonville State. The Bobcats allow only 94.31 rushing yards per game (5th), while the Gamecocks yield 170.23 (95th). In fact, Ohio has been undeniably elite at stopping the run down the stretch, ranking 4th in PPA per rush, 1st in rush success rate, 5th in line yards allowed and 8th in stuff rate outside of garbage time since Week 9. The Bobcats also generated havoc at a top 5 rate in that span, which should overwhelm a Jacksonville State offensive line that has not seen a run defense as good as Ohio’s. Because Ohio is seemingly less affected by the transfer portal and has the edge on the ground on both sides, I’m going to lay points with the Bobcats – who seek their 6th consecutive bowl victory. Playable to -5.5.
Read our full prediction for Ohio vs Jacksonville State
Indiana Hoosiers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Under 52.5 (-115)
Indiana and Notre Dame mutually rank outside the top 80 in plays per game and outside the top 100 in seconds per play, so I expect a methodical and deliberate approach to his game from both offenses. In addition to a slower pace of play, these offenses lack consistent explosiveness, as Indiana and Notre Dame are outside the top 40 in plays of at least 20 yards this season. Over the last 5 weeks, the Fighting Irish were 58th in explosiveness per play allowed, while the Hoosiers were 123rd. All this to say, I think this is a great matchup for the defenses.
Notre Dame relies heavily on the run and has one of the most efficient rushing units in the country. However, the Hoosiers have been fantastic against the run. They lead the country in rushing yards allowed per game (70.83), and carry a top 10 mark in PPA per rush allowed outside of garbage time during the regular season. That production didn’t drop off at any point, even down the stretch. Indiana is #1 in PPA per rush allowed since Week 9, holding Michigan to 2 yards per attempt and Ohio State to 4 yards per attempt in that span. The Hoosiers were also top 10 in EPA per play against inside zone concepts, which Notre Dame runs at a top 20 rate. The 3-headed monster of Riley Leonard, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price will certainly test the Hoosiers defensively, but I think the Hoosiers will pass that test.
Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke was sacked 9 combined times against the 2 best pass rush defenses he faced in Michigan and Ohio State. Some of that can be attributed to the absence of starting guard Drew Evans (Achilles), but Notre Dame is right up there with the Wolverines and the Buckeyes in terms of pass rush. The Irish are likely to pressure Rourke for a majority of the night, which isn’t a good thing for Rourke and the Hoosiers. For reference, Rourke has the 2nd-highest pressure-to-sack rate (PFF) of qualified Big Ten quarterbacks despite being sacked only 17 times this season. Furthermore, his turnover-worthy play rate increases to 4.2% from 1.9% when under pressure vs. kept clean. None of this helps scoring. All things considered, I think this is a gritty, low-scoring game in South Bend. Playable to 51.
Read our full prediction for Indiana vs Notre Dame
