Caleb Wilfinger
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Florida State and Florida have one of the better rivalries in college football each season, and this year’s matchup has major College Football Playoff implications on the line when these teams meet on Saturday. The Seminoles are looking to round out a perfect regular season while the hosts are hoping to win their sixth game and qualify for a postseason bowl game. Can the Gators pull the upset, or will Florida State pick up a crucial victory over its in-state rival?
Here is my Florida State vs Florida Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s matchup, which will be televised starting at 7:00 pm ET on ESPN. Also, be sure to check out our full Florida State vs Florida predictions.
Florida +6.5 (-105)
Under 46.5 (+132)
Same Game Parlay odds: +353
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate the plays. That is some of the plan here, as Florida covering this spread certainly correlates with an alternate under.
Florida Gators +6.5 vs Florida State Seminoles (-105)
There are a great deal of questions heading into this year’s installment of the sunshine showdown. Florida State was in prime position to win the ACC and qualify for the College Football Playoff, but the Seminoles suffered a devastating blow last week in losing starting quarterback Jordan Travis to a season-ending injury. In steps backup Tate Rodemaker and he’ll be greeted with a road test in a rivalry game right out of the gate. The season hasn’t gone to plan for Florida, but a win over the ‘Noles while reaching bowl-eligibility would be a nice way to end the campaign. The Gators’ starting quarterback, Graham Mertz, is also out for the season after an injury suffered last week against Missouri. Therefore, we’ve got a battle between backup quarterbacks with a ton at stake in the Swamp.
Florida has been a hard team to read this year, but the Gators have been good at home with a 5-1 straight-up record this season. Rodemaker is pretty much an unknown for FSU, as he has only one start under his belt, when he went 8 for 12 for 58 yards and an interception in 2020. Florida backup quarterback Matt Brown is a dual-threat QB and probably fits Bill Napier’s preferred style of play more than Mertz, so I could see him having success here as well. This environment is going to be a lot for Rodemaker’s first road start and this series has been very even over the last 10 meetings, so this game could truly go either way. I like taking the points at home for a Florida team that should be plenty motivated for this matchup.
Under 46.5 (+132)
It’s hard not to look at the under in this game considering the uncertainty we have with both quarterbacks and I’m boosting the odds with a lower alternate line. I have serious concerns with Rodemaker given his prior struggles at the Power 5 level in his past appearances for the Seminoles.
Luckily for him, the Florida State defense allows only 17.3 points and 314 yards per game on average. Those are not elite numbers, but still should be more than enough to get the job on a Florida offense that will likely be focusing on establishing the ground game and working in a lot of quarterback runs in the RPO game with Brown under center. While there isn’t much on the Florida defense from a metrics perspective that supports this game going under the total, I can’t back the over here in a game where I expect the coaches to be cautious with their quarterbacks.
Check out all of our expert’s Week 13 NCAAF best bets
