Ricky Dimon
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The College Football playoff kicks off on Saturday afternoon, when Michigan (13-0) battles TCU (12-1) in the Fiesta Bowl. That is followed by Georgia facing Ohio State in the Peach Bowl, so by the end of the night the National Championship matchup will be set. Will it be a rematch of the Big Ten title game between the Wolverines and Buckeyes? Will Georgia take care of business? Will TCU pull off an upset? Those questions are soon to be answered.
Below is our SGP for the Fiesta Bowl, and also be sure to check out our full TCU vs Michigan picks on the side and total.
Michigan -9.5 alternate spread (+108)
Ronnie Bell over 54.5 receiving yards (-114)
Max Duggan over 234.5 passing yards (-114)
Parlay odds: +651
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the case with backing UM receiver Ronnie Bell to have a decent day at the office, as that would work well with a big win for the Wolverines. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with taking the over on Max Duggan’s passing yards. But even if Duggan throws for a fair amount, there is no reason why Michigan can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the SGP legs.
Michigan -9.5 alternate spread (+108)
The Wolverines have maybe been even more dominant than Georgia this season in terms of blowout wins compared to close games. Most impressively, of course, they clobbered arch rival Ohio State to close out the regular season in style. Offensively, head coach Jim Harbaugh’s crew hasn’t missed a beat since losing running back Blake Corum for the season. Donovan Edwards has been just as explosive, and Michigan has scored 45 and 43 points in the games without Corum. TCU gives up nearly 150 rushing yards per game and — combined with the size of the Wolverine offensive line — the biggest mismatch is in the trenches, where Michigan has a clear physical advantage. The Wolverines are more physical and can grind down the smaller Horned Frogs defense. I like UM’s chances to prevail by double digits.
Ronnie Bell over 54.5 receiving yards (-114)
Ronnie Bell has been over this 54.5 quota 6 times during the 2022 campaign and on another occasion he missed it by 2 yards. The senior from Kansas City is coming off a 67-yard performance in the Big Ten Championship on 5 catches, 1 of which went for a touchdown during a 43-22 rout of Purdue. TCU is giving up more than 235 yards per game through the air, so count on Bell being productive once again.
You can also read our Ohio State vs Georgia Same Game Parlay.
Max Duggan over 234.5 passing yards (-114)
I expect TCU to be playing from behind most of the way, in which case Max Duggan will probably be airing it out early and often. So in a way this actually correlates nicely with a convincing win by the Wolverines. There likely will be little running room for TCU running back Kendre Miller, as Michigan boasts the 3rd-best rushing defense in the entire nation. Duggan, as Heisman Trophy finalist, will have to find wide receiver Quentin Johnston in the passing game if the Frogs want to move the ball down the field. In 9 of 12 starts so far this season Duggan has exceeded this 234.5 number. Look for him to do it again.
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