Sam Avellone
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The meat and potatoes of bowl season have come and gone, but there are still a few games left over the next few days including the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl between the Duke Blue Devils (9-3) and the Ole Miss Rebels (9-3). While they fell short of the College Football Playoff, the Rebels had a good season, defeating 5 bowl-eligible teams – including Georgia. The Blue Devils beat 4 bowl-eligible teams, but they lost to the 3 best teams on their schedule in Georgia Tech, SMU and Miami. Like most non-playoff bowl games, the transfer portal will have an effect on this game. Duke will be without at least its starting quarterback and running back, while Ole Miss will be without a couple of defensive pieces including Chris Paul Jr. and Jadon Canady.
Despite the moving pieces and the lop-sided spread in this matchup, there’s still enough here to assemble a Duke vs Ole Miss Same Game Parlay for the Gator Bowl. Let’s get to the picks, and don’t forget to keep checking Pickswise daily for college football predictions on all of the remaining bowl and playoff games.
Ole Miss -9.5 first half (-115)
Jordan Watkins (MISS) over 4.5 receptions (-140)
Ulysses Bentley IV (MISS) anytime touchdown scorer (-150)
Duke vs Ole Miss Same Game Parlay odds: +400
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Ole Miss Rebels -9.5 first half over Duke Blue Devils (-115)
The Rebels will be without a couple of key defensive pieces, but they should still have plenty of game-changers on that side of the ball, including Princely Umanmielen, Jared Ivey, Walter Nolen and Suntarine Perkins – Ole Miss’ 4 leaders in pressures and sacks. The Rebels should also have their 2 best coverage defenders in the secondary on the field in Trey Washington and Trey Amos. As a whole, Ole Miss finished top 20 in PPA-per-play allowed and top 35 in success-rate allowed over the last 5 weeks of the season while generating havoc at the highest rate in the country over that time. That’s going to put a lot of pressure (no pun intended) on an offense without its starting running back and led by a backup quarterback. Furthermore, the Rebels finished the season top 10 in opposing red-zone scoring, which means Duke will likely struggle to finish drives – if it even reaches the red zone in the first half.
Similar to the defensive side of the ball, Ole Miss will be without a couple of pieces on offense. However, the Rebels will still have quarterback Jaxson Dart and multiple playmakers around him. Maybe some of the guys that stated they will play in this game will only play for a half like Cam Ward and other players around college football over the last week, but early on, Ole Miss should have the upper hand against Duke on both sides.
Read our full Duke vs Ole Miss prediction for the Gator Bowl
Jordan Watkins (MISS) over 4.5 receptions (-140)
The Gator Bowl will be Jordan Watkins’ last college game, so I expect Dart to pepper the senior wide receiver with targets against Duke – especially if Tre Harris doesn’t play due to his ongoing injury issues. Watkins has been heavily targeted since Week 10, as Dart has thrown his way at least 7 times in each game. In fact, Watkins has 37 targets in Ole Miss’ final 4 games, and he caught 25 of those passes. The only late-season game in which he did not surpass this number was the Georgia game when he caught 4 passes on 7 targets. Look for Watkins to continue to be heavily involved in Ole Miss’ passing offense against a Duke defense that is 69th in PPA per pass and 128th in explosiveness per pass since Week 9.
Now check out our Notre Dame vs Georgia Bulldogs prediction for the Sugar Bowl
Ulysses Bentley IV (MISS) anytime touchdown scorer (-150)
Another senior playing his last game, I like Ulysses Bentley to find the end zone in the Gator Bowl. It has been somewhat of a disappointing season for Bentley, as he expected more playing time following the departure of Quinshon Judkins. Unfortunately for Bentley, Henry Parrish Jr. ended up being the primary running back for the Rebels this season before an early-November injury knocked him out for the rest of the campaign. Bentley stepped in as starting running back following Parrish’s injury and has been solid in that role when healthy, scoring in each of his final 2 games (did not play against Florida). In fact, Bentley has scored a touchdown in each of the 3 games in which he carried the ball at least 10 times. That trend should continue in this one. Look for Bentley to demand a majority of the carries and for him to punch one in against the Blue Devils.
Now read our Notre Dame vs Georgia Same Game Parlay picks at +500 odds for their College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup
