Sam Avellone
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Saturday’s college football slate is one we’ve been looking forward to since the 12-team format was announced. With 3 games throughout the day, college football fans will be treated to something we have never seen before – playoff games played on college campuses in the home stadiums of the higher-seeded teams. The mid-afternoon game between the #12 Clemson Tigers and the #5 Texas Longhorns kicks off at 4:00pm ET, and we put together a Same Game Parlay for the action. Let’s get to the picks, and don’t forget to check Pickswise daily for college football picks and CFB predictions on all of the bowl and playoff games this postseason.
Cade Klubnik (CLEM) Over 23.5 rush yards (-115)
Quinn Ewers (TEX) Over 0.5 interceptions (-115)
Texas Longhorns ML (-500)
Clemson vs Texas Same Game Parlay odds: +375
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing.
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Cade Klubnik (CLEM) Over 23.5 rush yards (-115)
There is an inherent risk that comes with betting on a college quarterback to go Over his rushing yards prop, as sack yards count against the quarterback’s rushing yards total at this level. However, Cade Klubnik should carry the ball enough that it won’t matter, especially if running back Phil Mafah is not 100%. Klubnik has recorded 10 carries in all 5 of Clemson’s recent games against FBS opponents, and when you remove his sacks from that total, he has at least 8 attempts in all but 1 of those games. Speaking of sacks, Klubnik was sacked twice or more on 6 separate occasions this season and still managed to surpass this rushing total in 5 of those contests. Given Texas’s #1 rating in PFF’s pass coverage, Klubnik’s legs are the X-factor for Clemson, and the Longhorns have been susceptible to quarterback runs at various points this season – as proven by Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed and Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia.
Quinn Ewers (TEX) Over 0.5 interceptions (-115)
Betting on a quarterback to throw an interception can be a bit of a roll of the dice, but I think there’s more than a legitimate chance that Quinn Ewers throws a pick in this game. He hasn’t exactly been immune to mistakes, as he has thrown 9 interceptions with 17 turnover-worthy plays despite missing 2 games. In fact, Ewers is bottom 15 nationally in turnover-worthy play rate among qualified power conference quarterbacks this season (PFF). He has thrown an interception in 3 of the 5 home games he started, and he threw 4 combined interceptions in 3 games against Georgia and Texas A&M – 2 defenses similar to the talent level of Clemson’s stop-unit. The Tigers have recorded 15 interceptions this season (16th), including in 4 consecutive FBS games. Furthermore, Clemson’s defense is a top 50 unit in PFF’s pass coverage and havoc generated outside of garbage time since Week 9.
Read our full prediction for Clemson vs Texas
Texas Longhorns ML over Clemson Tigers (-500)
Clemson struggled offensively against the best defensive opponents it played in Georgia, Louisville and South Carolina, which does not bode well for the Tigers against Texas. The Longhorns are 2nd nationally in PPA per play allowed outside of garbage time this season, only behind Notre Dame. They excel at limiting explosives and opposing scoring opportunities, and they generate havoc at a top 10 rate. Given their uninspiring offensive showings in the aforementioned games, I don’t trust the Tigers to score consistently throughout this game on the road. I power rate Texas as a 13.5-point favorite, so I don’t mind laying the points with the Longhorns here. However, I’d rather include the money line in this parlay to improve its chances of cashing while avoiding the double-digit spread.
