Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 14 of the college football season is behind us, and what an incredible week it was. We saw more chaos in rivalry week, particularly in the Big 10 and ACC, where a couple of upsets left a massive impact on the College Football Playoff rankings. Championship week has now arrived, as the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff bracket will be sorted out by Sunday. With that said, it’s time to dive into Saturday’s slate with my weekly best bets column. I’m on a 10-3 best bets run over the last 4 weeks following a 2-1 card in last week’s column. The last month of the regular season has been kind to me once again this season, so let’s keep that momentum going this week!
With a smaller Saturday card this week, I’m going to tackle the massive games in the Big Ten and SEC for my best bets. Let’s take a look at my top college football picks for Championship Week on Saturday.
Oregon Ducks -3 over Penn State Nittany Lions (-115)
Odds taken from game preview published on December 3. Playable to Oregon -3.5 (-110)
I’ve had a really good feel for both of these teams throughout Big Ten play, and both sides do have certain matchup advantages over the opponent in this game. With that said, I do see some value with the Ducks now that we’re starting to see some cheaper prices on Oregon -3 in the market. Much has been made of James Franklin’s struggles against elite competition during his tenure at Penn State. In fact, the Nittany Lions haven’t won a game outright as an underdog since September 2021 against Wisconsin, having dropped 9 straight since that win. Against top-5 opponents in his coaching career, Franklin is 1-16 straight up and 5-12 against the spread. And while I do think that this Penn State roster and coaching staff make up the strongest team this program has had in years, this is still the best opponent they will have faced all season, and it’s in a high-pressure spot to boot.
Oregon used the bye week to get healthy and refreshed after 8 straight Big Ten games, and a 49-point outburst against Washington at home was just what the doctor ordered a week ago. The Ducks’ offense continues to be one of the best units in the nation, averaging over 7 yards per play in the Big Ten and sitting inside the top 5 in EPA per rush, EPA per pass and success rate this season. Dillon Gabriel has consistently played his best football in the biggest moments, and it’s clear that having a veteran leader at the quarterback position is a difference-maker for this unit. Penn State’s defense certainly presents a unique challenge for Gabriel and the Ducks’ offense, but offensive coordinator Will Stein should have plenty of tricks up his sleeve after keeping things purposefully vanilla over the past month or so. It certainly helps matters that the Oregon offensive line is the best unit that Abdul Carter and the Nittany Lions defensive front will have faced to this point. Additionally, the return of top wide receiver Tez Johnson is massive for this offense, as the Ducks averaged over 3 points per drive with Johnson in the lineup over the first 9 games this season. Without his top target on the field against Maryland and Wisconsin, Gabriel and the Oregon offense only averaged 2.09 points per drive, with an explosive pass plate rate of just 9.2% (compared to 19.2% with Johnson in the lineup).
As for Penn State, Andy Kotelnicki’s offense continues to rank inside the top 10 nationally in success rate, EPA per play, Early Downs EPA and 3rd/4th down success rate (College Football Insiders). However, the Oregon defense is excellent on early downs and ranks inside the top 5 in EPA per dropback and passing success rate allowed, so this will be a stern test for Drew Allar and the much-maligned Penn State receiving corps. The Ducks are also 10th in net points per drive on defense, so we can expect a couple of Penn State drives to stall around the red zone in this one. Additionally, Oregon’s defense ranks 5th in pressure rate on the season, and what’s even more impressive is that the Ducks are able to get after the quarterback without blitzing. In fact, Lanning’s defense is ranked 8th in the nation in pressure to blitz rate, which should help the Ducks consistently devote more attention to slowing down all-world tight end Tyler Warren while the likes of Matayo Uiagalelei, Derrick Harmon and Jordan Burch get after the quarterback. With the dynamic duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen at running back, the Nittany Lions should be able to have success on the ground in this game against a very solid (but not elite) Ducks run defense. With that said, as long as Oregon can get off the field on pivotal 3rd downs (10th in 3rd and 4th down success rate), I feel pretty good about the Ducks’ defense to win when it matters most. After all, this unit won the game against Ohio State back in October, and I’m confident in their ability to step up once again on the big stage to claim a Big Ten Championship.
Read our full Penn State vs Oregon prediction
Texas Longhorns -2.5 over Georgia Bulldogs (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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A first round bye in the College Football Playoff is at stake when the Texas Longhorns square off against the Georgia Bulldogs for the second time this season on Saturday in Atlanta. I was all over Georgia as a 6-point underdog in the first meeting, but even though this game isn’t in Austin, I’m taking the Longhorns to exact a bit of revenge and capture the SEC title on Saturday. There’s no doubt that this Georgia team will be dangerous in a single elimination, playoff setting. However, it’s hard for me to look at the Bulldogs’ data points from the entirety of this season and convince myself that they’ll show up and play a complete, 60-minute game here. After all, we just saw the Bulldogs play an 8-overtime game against Georgia Tech as nearly 3-touchdown favorites at home a week ago (there’s a reason Georgia Tech was one of my best bets last week). Even in the first meeting against Texas, the defense was excellent in that contest, but it’s worth mentioning that four of its five Georgia scoring drives in the first half started in Texas territory due to a plethora of Longhorns turnovers. Is that something Georgia can recreate on Saturday? I wouldn’t be so sure. On offense, Carson Beck has been playing better football over the past month, but this is still an inconsistent passing offense and a Georgia wide receiving room that leads in the nation in drops. With Trevor Etienne doubtful to play, this game is completely on Beck’s arm. That wouldn’t make me feel great if I was a Georgia fan or backer.
Over the past 6 weeks, Georgia’s defense has taken a major step back when it comes to efficiency on a down-to-down basis, which shouldn’t be new information if you’ve watched any Bulldogs games down the stretch. Georgia is now down to 37th in success rate allowed this season (44th in passing success rate allowed), and Kirby Smart’s team is only 58th in Early Downs EPA. The Bulldogs defensive line also isn’t generating much havoc, and that won’t get any easier against a Texas offensive line that has gotten healthier over the last few weeks, and it’s showed in how the Longhorns have been able to run the football at a dominant clip. We just saw Texas impose its will on Texas A&M’s excellent defensive line in a very difficult spot on the road last week, and I’m confident in that momentum translating into this rematch, where the Longhorns will undoubtedly be extremely motivated to not only get their revenge after an embarrassing loss earlier this season, but take home an SEC Championship in their first year in the conference. I’m expecting an inspired gameplan from Steve Sarkisian and both Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue should feast on the ground in this game. Don’t be surprised if we see Arch Manning play a few snaps as well, particularly to give Georgia something to think about as Texas looks to establish the quarterback run game. Ultimately, the Longhorns are in a great spot to hand Georgia its third loss of the season, and that’s exactly what I think happens on Saturday.
Read our full Georgia vs Texas prediction
