Sam Avellone
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The college football regular season is officially in the rearview mirror, which means our focus shifts to the 9 conference championships this weekend. On Friday, Conference USA, the Mountain West and the American Athletic Conference will crown their champions. Those matchups will serve as an appetizer for Saturday, when the power conference champions will be determined – in addition to the Mid-American Conference and the Sun Belt.
Let’s take a look at the early lines and odds for conference championship week, and I will cap it off with my favorite bet of the bunch. While we were unable to end with a win, we managed a 9-4 record on the opening line best bets during the regular season – a win rate of 69.2%! Make sure you continue to check Pickswise daily for college football picks and CFB predictions on all of the conference championship, bowl and playoff games this postseason.
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Conference championship week opening lines and odds
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing on Monday morning
- Jacksonville State -4 (-110) vs Western Kentucky; Total 58 – Friday, December 6
- Boise State -4 (-110) vs UNLV; Total 58.5 – Friday, December 6
- Tulane -4 (-110) @ Army; Total 47.5 – Friday, December 6
- Arizona State -2.5 (-110) vs Iowa State; Total 51 – Saturday, December 7
- Miami (OH) -2.5 (-110) vs Ohio; Total 44.5 – Saturday, December 7
- Texas -2.5 (-110) vs Georgia; Total 49 – Saturday, December 7
- Oregon -3.5 (-110) vs Penn State; Total 49.5 – Saturday, December 7
- SMU -2.5 (-110) vs Clemson; Total 55.5 – Saturday, December 7
- Louisiana -4 (-110) vs Marshall; Total 57 – Saturday, December 7
Conference championship week opening lines best bet: Jacksonville State Gamecocks -4 over Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-110)
The Gamecocks had an unblemished conference record until last week’s 19-17 loss at Western Kentucky, in which the Hilltoppers connected on a 50-yard field goal to earn the victory and a chance to win the Conference USA title in a rematch with Jacksonville State. Despite the loss, the Gamecocks are still the top seed in CUSA and will play this game on their home turf because of it. That should be a big advantage for them, as they have not lost at home since opening night against Coastal Carolina.
Another key advantage for Jacksonville State in this matchup is its ground game. Not including the service academies, the Gamecocks have the highest rush rate in the country outside of garbage time since Week 9, and that was on display even in their loss to the Hilltoppers last weekend. For reference, they gained 229 rushing yards on 43 attempts, which is an average of 5.3 yards per carry. However, they could not stay on the field, converting just 2 of 13 third-down attempts. I’m willing to forgive Jacksonville State for that this week because the Gamecocks knew they were going to the CUSA title game no matter what, and because quarterback Tyler Huff sustained an injury during the game. While I expect Huff to play in this game, backup quarterback Logan Smothers is a senior with plenty of experience that is capable of leading the offense.
As the home team this time around, I expect the Gamecocks to be much better on third downs — especially when considering the fact that Western Kentucky ranks 127th in third and fourth-down success allowed (per College Football Insiders). Jacksonville State should find itself in ample manageable third downs with the 16th-best early downs EPA via a strong run game that has been extremely efficient as of late. For reference, Jacksonville State has a top-20 mark in PPA per rush and top 35 marks in rushing success and explosiveness per rush since Week 9. Western Kentucky’s defense has not been good against the run in that time, sitting outside the top 100 in PPA per rush, rushing success rate and stuff rate. Given the advantages in the ground game and being in an immediate revenge spot at home, I like the Gamecocks to win the Conference USA title and cover the -4 spread in the process. Playable to -5.
