Sam Avellone
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Conference championship week is here, and we will have a 3-game mini-slate on Friday to kick things off. All of the power conference championships will be on Saturday, but Conference USA, the Mountain West Conference and the American Athletic Conference will all crown their champions on Friday. With a win, Boise State will likely punch its ticket to the College Football Playoff and earn a first-round bye. However, if the Broncos falter, that leaves the door open for UNLV to sneak in as the Group of 5 representative. There are 2 bets that I like on the championship Friday slate, so let’s get to the picks – and don’t forget to check Pickswise daily during the postseason for college football picks and CFB predictions on ALL of the bowl and playoff games.
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Jacksonville State Gamecocks -4.5 over Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-110)
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.5
The Gamecocks were one of the hottest teams in the country prior to last week’s 19-17 loss to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, who won on a walk-off 50-yard field goal. However, Jacksonville State maintained the top spot in the conference standings, so this championship game will be played on its home turf – where the Gamecocks have not lost since the opening week against Coastal Carolina. Despite last week’s loss, the Gamecocks still have a significant advantage in this matchup thanks to a strong rushing attack. Outside of the service academies, they have the highest rush rate in the country sans garbage time since Week 9, and they are very efficient in the run game as well – boasting a top 20 mark in PPA per rush and top 35 marks in rush success and explosiveness per rush. That was on display last week, as Jacksonville State averaged 5.3 yards per carry for a total of 229 rushing yards. The issue was that the Gamecocks offense could not stay on the field and piece together quality drives, as they were just 2 of 13 on third downs. However, I don’t expect that to continue into this week. Western Kentucky’s defense ranks 127th in third and fourth down success allowed per College Football Insiders, and Jacksonville State has a top 20 EPA on early downs – which should put the Gamecocks in multiple manageable third down situations.
Jacksonville State starting quarterback Tyler Huff was injured early in the second quarter last week, and his status for this game is up in the air. While Huff is more efficient, backup Logan Smothers has ample experience in Rich Rodriguez’s system and should be just fine leading this offense against the Western Kentucky defense. No matter who is under center, expect the Gamecocks to rely heavily on running back Tre Stewart, who should find success against a Hilltopper stop-unit that is outside the top 100 in PPA per rush allowed, rush success and stuff rate since Week 9.
Read our full WKU vs Jacksonville State prediction for the Conference-USA Championship game
Tulane Green Wave -5 over Army Black Knights (-110)
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.5
Stopping the run is going to be crucial to win this game, as Tulane and Army both carry top 10 rush rates outside of garbage time since the end of October. When comparing these defenses and how they have performed against the rush, I believe the Green Wave are better equipped than Army to stop the run in this matchup. Despite similar strength of schedules, Tulane’s season-long run defense ranks top 20 in opposing PPA per rush and rush success rate and top 30 in stuff rate. Army, on the other hand, is outside the top 85 in each of those metrics. Given Tulane’s excellence against the run, Army may have to rely on quarterback Bryson Daily more often than it wants, which is not a good thing for the Black Knights offense. While Daily has thrown just 1 interception, he has 7 turnover-worthy plays this season. That’s not an extremely high number on the surface, but when you consider how little he drops back compared to the other quarterbacks in the country, it jumps off the page. For reference, he has a 7.7% turnover-worthy play rate, which is 5th-worst nationally among quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks. Tulane quarterback Darian Mensah has plenty of turnover-worthy plays himself, but he is a productive passer that benefits from having arguably the most talented group of receivers in the conference.
Playing a championship game on the road is not easy, but Tulane has excelled away from home this season. The Green Wave have won and covered every road game since their loss at Oklahoma in mid-September, a game in which they trailed by just 5 early in the 4th quarter. Tulane has been one of the best teams in the country when it comes to finishing drives in recent weeks, averaging 5.12 points per scoring opportunity since Week 9. Furthermore, coach Jon Sumrall has been excellent at getting his teams back on track after a loss in his short career as a college football head coach. Those traits give me the extra confidence I need to play points with the Green Wave on the road in the AAC Championship.
Read our full Tulane vs Army prediction for the AAC Championship game
