Ricky Dimon
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Bowl season of the 2023 college football season kicks off on Saturday with a 7-game slate. It wraps up with the Independence Bowl between the California Golden Bears and Texas Tech Red Raiders. California surged into bowl qualification at 6-6 by ending the regular season on a 3-game winning streak. Texas Tech is also 6-6 and won 3 in a row before finishing with a loss at Texas.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which will be televised starting at 9:15 pm ET on ESPN. Also be sure to check out our full California vs Texas Tech predictions.
Texas Tech -6.5 alternate spread (+108)
Behren Morton Over 227.5 passing yards (-114)
Jaydn Ott to record +125 rushing yards (+130)
Parlay odds: +1048
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton throwing for his fair share of yards would obviously work well with a Red Raiders victory. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing California RB Jaydn Ott to do plenty of damage on the ground. But even if that happens, there is no reason why Texas Tech can’t get the job done. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Texas Tech -6.5 alternate spread (+108)
Like with most bowl games, opt-outs are a factor in the Independence Bowl. The 2 most significant ones impact the Bears. First, their leading tackler on defense hit the transfer portal. Second, their offensive coordinator bolted for Baylor. That means Cal will be impacted on both sides of the ball. For Texas Tech, star running back Tahj Brooks is set to play. He is one of the better backs in the nation and the Texas Tech offensive line is an elite unit. The Red Raiders should also be able to throw the ball, too, because they have a healthy quarterback for one of the rare times this season. I think Tech can win this one by at least a touchdown.
Behren Morton Over 227.5 passing yards (-114)
As mentioned, Morton is armed with a rare clean bill of health. He is 100 percent just in time to carve up a California passing defense that ranks fourth-to-last in the nation by allowing 283.3 yards per game. It’s also worth noting that the Bears have surrendered 27 touchdowns through the air while making just 11 interceptions. All of that is good news for Morton, who has 4 games under his belt since returning from a 3-week injury absence. The sophomore exceeded this 227.5 number in 2 of those 4 contests, passing for 282 yards against TCU and for 256 yards at UCF’s expense. With a favorable matchup against Cal, Morton should be in line for another big day.
Jaydn Ott to record +125 rushing yards (+130)
Cal’s defense probably doesn’t have much chance of keeping Texas Tech’s offense under wraps on a consistent basis. As such, the Bears would be wise to try to control the clock with their running game and keep the Red Raiders’ offensive attack off the field for as long as possible. I expect Ott to get a boatload of carries in that effort, and the results should be favorable. Ott has rushed for 1,260 yards and 11 touchdowns on 229 carries this season, averaging 6.7 yards per attempt. The sophomore from Chino, CA now goes up against a Texas Tech defense that is yielding 167.7 rushing yards per game. Asking Ott to reach the 125 mark should not be too much.
