Sam Avellone
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It’s not very often that you see teams from the same conference playing against each other in a bowl game, but that’s exactly what we will have on Saturday in the Valero Alamo Bowl between the BYU Cougars and the Colorado Buffaloes. In fact, this game unofficially acts as a third-place game of sorts considering the Cougars and the Buffaloes finished 3rd and 4th, respectively, in the conference standings with identical records. Most everyone is expected to play according to both coaches, but how much are we going to see of guys with high NFL Draft stock like Sheduer Sanders and Travis Hunter? If you know the answer to that, you have a significant edge on this game.
With so much intrigue surrounding this rare, postseason conference matchup in primetime on Saturday night, it felt like a perfect opportunity for a Same Game Parlay. Let’s get to the picks, and keep checking Pickswise daily for college football predictions on all of the bowl and playoff games this postseason.
Chase Roberts (BYU) 60+ receiving yards (-120)
LJ Martin (BYU) 77+ rushing yards (-130)
BYU Cougars 2nd half ML (+114)
Valero Alamo Bowl Same Game Parlay odds: +525
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
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Chase Roberts (BYU) 60+ receiving yards (-120)
BYU’s leader in targets Darius Lassiter is set to miss the first half of this game due to suspension from an unsportsmanlike penalty in the Cougars’ final game of the regular season. This should lead to an uptick in targets for Chase Roberts, who is already the team’s leader in receptions and receiving yards. Roberts has surpassed this number in 75% of BYU’s games this year, including in 5 straight, and was top 10 in the Big 12 in yards per reception. With an expected increase in target share during the first half of this game, he should be good for at least 60 receiving yards against this Colorado defense. Playable to 70.
Read our full BYU vs Colorado prediction
LJ Martin (BYU) 78+ rushing yards (-125)
Similar to my rationale for the Roberts pick, LJ Martin should see a few extra touches on Saturday – putting him in a great position to surpass this number. He averages 5.2 yards per carry, and has at least 15 attempts in 4 of his last 6 games. In those 4 games with at least 15 carries, he averaged 96 rushing yards per game. Colorado has been solid against the run since Week 9 on a down-to-down basis, ranking in the top 45 in PPA per rush outside of garbage time. However, the Buffaloes are prone to giving up big rushing plays, allowing 64 10-yard runs and 19 20-yard runs this season – both of which rank 85th or worse. This seems like a good spot for Martin against a Colorado defense that allowed massive rushing performances to multiple Big 12 running backs this season. Playable to 85.
BYU Cougars 2nd half ML over Colorado Buffaloes (+114)
There is quite a bit of speculation going into the final leg of this parlay, but its bowl season – which is the land of the unknown in college football. While Colorado coach Deion Sanders swears that his guys will honor their commitment to the program and play in this game, I don’t trust they will play this game in its entirety – specifically Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. Even if they do play for the entire game, BYU adding Lassiter to the field after halftime gives quarterback Jake Retzlaff his favorite target and puts this passing attack at full strength for the final 30 minutes. I expect a full effort from the Cougars to close out this game, and I’m not positive we can count on that from the Buffaloes – especially if they have a decent halftime lead. Playable to +100.
