Caleb Wilfinger
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At long last, Midweek MACtion has returned! The action gets underway on Tuesday with a pair of games that should be plenty compelling and has real implications as it relates to the conference standings and the title race. The Toledo Rockets look like the clear best team in the MAC, but they still need to keep winning in order to remain ahead of Northern Illinois in the MAC West division. Will they keep rolling against Buffalo? Let’s find out.
Here is my Buffalo vs Toledo Same Game Parlay for Tuesday’s matchup, which will be televised on ESPN starting at 7:30 pm ET. Also, be sure to check out our NCAAF predictions for all the big games this week.
Toledo -14.5 (-110)
Under 51.5 (-110)
Dequan Finn over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-170)
Same Game Parlay odds: +415
Toledo Rockets -14.5 over Buffalo Bulls (-110)
Following an extended rest, the Buffalo Bulls and the Toledo Rockets will meet on Halloween in one of the first midweek MAC games of the season. The Bulls started the season with an 0-4 record but they have won 3 out of 4 in conference play, albeit against very poor competition. I don’t expect that to continue against a Toledo team that has the noticeable talent advantage on both sides of the ball and the much better offense (top 20 in EPA per rush, EPA per pass and early downs EPA). Toledo has won 7 straight since its opening-week loss at Illinois, including a couple of impressive conference wins over Miami (OH) and a barnburner win over Northern Illinois.
It’s no secret that this a massive matchup for both MAC divisional races. If Toledo wins, it would improve its conference record to 5-0 and would make it improbable that NIU will make up ground given the head-to-head win it has over the Huskies. Look for a focused effort from this Toledo team at home on Tuesday.
Read our full Buffalo Bulls vs Toledo Rockets predictions
Under 51.5 (-110)
Given that we have a MAC playoff-type situation in a midweek game with extended rest, the defenses could have success limiting the scoring – especially given how well Toledo and Buffalo have played on that side of the ball. In fact, both the Bulls and the Rockets are top 25 nationally in points per opportunity allowed over the last 4 weeks. Both teams have yielded less than 5 scoring opportunities per game in that amount of time as well. For what it’s worth, Toledo has an excellent secondary that is top 5 nationally in pass coverage and anchors a defense that is 10th in EPA per pass (CFB-Graphs). Meanwhile, the Rockets are very run-heavy, which Buffalo is top 15 nationally in rush PPA, rush success rate, power success and stuff rate since Week 5. Let’s take the under here.
Dequan Finn over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-170)
Dequan Finn has consistently improved as a passer over his career, and that’s continued into this campaign where Finn has 2 or more touchdown passes in 6 of Toledo’s 8 games this season. Even though I’m confident in backing the under in this game, that doesn’t mean Finn can’t see success throwing the football en route to a pair of touchdown passes. Toledo should use the ground game effectively to salt the game away late, but this is still an offense that can be explosive in the passing game, so don’t be surprised if the first few scores in this one are a result of Finn finding his receivers downfield.
