Caleb Wilfinger
Show Bio
After a long and grueling regular season, the college football postseason is finally here. We pulled off a clean sweep in Conference Championship weekend for the second straight year — bringing us to 25-19 (about 57%) since Week 2. I’ve said all season that some regression was to be expected after we cashed at an unsustainable 63% rate a year ago, but we finished the regular season strong, so let’s replicate that effort this weekend with the start of Bowl season!
The first full weekend of Bowl season is here and we have a compelling slate ahead of us, including fun games at the Group of 5 and Power 5 level. With the weekend rapidly approaching, here is a look at my best bets for the first weekend of bowl season. And remember, you can check out all of our NCAAF predictions for the action.
UCLA Bruins vs Boise State Broncos under 49.5 (-110)
Odds available at PointsBet Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 48.
Boise State comes into this game flying high after completely turning its season around in the final month of the campaign. Somehow, the Broncos ended up with a conference championship after Andy Avalos was fired, finishing the campaign with dominant victories over Utah State, Air Force and UNLV. However, don’t expect to see starting quarterback Taylen Green (transferred to Arkansas) and the Broncos’ top 2 catchers in Eric McAlister as well as Stefan Cobbs. Boise State will be forced start a third-string quarterback with little-to-no college experience in this one, which should ultimately lead us to more Ashton Jeanty use on the ground, bleeding clock against this very stout UCLA defense.
As my colleague Sam Avellone mentioned, the Bruins scored more than 10 points just once in the final 4 weeks of the regular season and earned just 1 outright victory following their bowl-qualifying win over Colorado on October 28. Not only are the Bruins stumbling into the playoffs, but they will also be without some key defensive contributors as well as defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who is off to crosstown rival USC. However, this is still a defensive unit that’ll be able to put pressure on the opposing quarterback and I can’t expect much from a Bruins offense that is starting Ethan Garbers at QB with some serious uncertainty at the key skill positions. Let’s roll with the under at the current number.
Be sure to check out our full UCLA vs Boise State predictions
Jacksonville State Gamecocks -2.5 over Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 3.
Few teams are happier to be playing a bowl game than Jacksonville State, as the Gamecocks qualified for the postseason in their first season at the FBS level. This is a huge game for this Gamecocks team, and I’m sure all of the players will be excited to play in a bowl game against a Ragin’ Cajuns team that was pretty mediocre all season long. Jacksonville State runs the ball with frequency, as the Gamecocks rank inside the top 10 in rush-play percentage, which should serve as an issue for Louisiana considering the Ragin’ Cajun defense is 120th in the country in rush success rate allowed and 84th in total rush defense. The Gamecocks are also top 20 in opponent yards per play on the season, so it will likely be a struggle for Louisiana to score all game long. Let’s back the team with the statistical and motivational advantage in this one.
Be sure to check out all of our NCAAF bowl season picks for the biggest games this weekend
