Caleb Wilfinger
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After a long and grueling regular season, the College Football Playoff is finally here. I’ve gone 8-1 in these bowl season columns so far — bringing me to 34-20 (about 63%) since Week 2. I’ve said all season that some regression was to be expected after we cashed at an unsustainable 63% rate a year ago, but we’ve been red hot in bowl season, so let’s keep that momentum going!
With the holiday season behind us, the final days of Bowl season are here and we have a compelling slate ahead of us, including a ton of fun games at the Group of 5 and Power 5 level. With Monday’s games rapidly approaching, here is a look at my best bet for the plethora of games at our disposal, including the College Football Playoff semifinal games. And remember, you can check out all of our NCAAF predictions for picks on all of the action.
Washington Huskies +4.5 vs Texas Longhorns (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Washington +3.5
We have what should be a terrific matchup on our hands in this College Football Playoff semifinal between the Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies. Both of these teams are playing some of their best football at the right time, which lends further intrigue to what should be a great game full of compelling matchups. Each offense has clear and obvious strengths that should play to their advantage against the opposing defense. For Texas, the Longhorns should see success in the trenches with their dynamic running game, which could pave the way for Quinn Ewers, Adonai Mitchell and company to have success off play action. However, it remains to be seen if Texas is able to block consistently against a Washington defensive line that has gotten healthier and much more disruptive over the last 3 weeks of the regular season. Texas’ offense has also had major issues with finishing drives, which could rear its ugly head against a Washington defense that has allowed plenty of yards this season, but has stiffened in the red zone when it counts.
As talented as Texas is, it’s hard for me not to give the benefit of the doubt to Kalen DeBoer — who has an astounding 103-11 record as a head coach — and this Huskies staff, including offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Washington’s main avenue to success comes in the form of Michael Penix Jr. and this elite receiving corps (13th in EPA per dropback, 8th in EPA per play per CFB-Graphs) picking on a banged-up Texas secondary that already had issues against the pass this season. The Longhorns have the best defensive front in the country in my eyes, and Texas’ elite run defense metrics prove it. Therefore, I can’t see Washington even trying to run the ball in this one. Instead, Penix will truly get to air the ball out downfield with a fully healthy receiving corps filled with NFL wideouts on a fast track in what should be an environment that is very conducive to explosive plays.
I absolutely can’t wait for this game, as it should be a back-and-forth affair where both sides deliver blows until the final whistle. While these are two different teams from a season ago, there is a bit of precedent for DeBoer getting the best of Steve Sarkisian, as the Huskies knocked off the Longhorns in last season’s Alamo Bowl, and did so through the air. As much as I like the Longhorns team, I simply can’t get there with Texas as a favorite of over a field goal here. Let’s back Washington catching 4.5 points in a game that I see coming down to the final possession.
Don’t miss our full Texas Longhorns vs Washington Huskies predictions
