Caleb Wilfinger
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After a long and grueling regular season, the college football postseason is finally here. I’ve gone 6-1 in these bowl season columns so far — bringing me to 31-20 (about 61%) since Week 2. I’ve said all season that some regression was to be expected after we cashed at an unsustainable 63% rate a year ago, but we’ve been rolling in bowl season, so let’s keep that momentum going!
With the holiday season behind us, the third full week of Bowl season is here and we have a compelling slate ahead of us, including a ton of fun games at the Group of 5 and Power 5 level. With Friday’s games rapidly approaching, here is a look at my best bet for the quartet of games at our disposal. And remember, you can check out all of our NCAAF predictions for picks on all of the action.
Missouri Tigers +5.5 vs Ohio State Buckeyes (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Missouri +3.
This is a game I’ve had circled on my bowl season calendar since the odds were released. Missouri opened as a 7-point underdog in the Peach Bowl, and within a week the line was very nearly priced as a pick ’em. Fast forward a few weeks and it appears that we’re not getting the same level of opt-outs that most bettors assumed would be the case with Ohio State. As a result, the line moved all the back to Ohio State now laying over a field goal. That’s music to my ears, as I would’ve bet Missouri catching a field goal or better.
Where it all starts for Missouri is the offense. Tigers quarterback Brady Cook leads a lethal attack that includes running back Cody Schrader and slot receiver Luther Burden III, both of whom should cause problems for an Ohio State defense that has largely faced bad offenses this season. The Tigers are 7th in early downs EPA and 18th in EPA per pass this season, plus they’ve also been elite in drives crossing the opponent’s 40-yard line, averaging over 4.5 points per quality possession on the year (College Football Data). And while this Tigers defense doesn’t exactly inspire much confidence in terms of stopping anyone, they shouldn’t be faced with too difficult a task given that Ohio State is likely going to be without most of its running backs, presumed top-5 pick Marvin Harrison Jr., along with quarterback Kyle McCord, who recently transferred to Syracuse. The Buckeyes still have weapons, but I’m curious about how effective new QB Devin Brown will be in his first start on a big stage.
Momentum and motivation matters in college football. While more Ohio State players have decided to play in this bowl game, Missouri is the team with the vast majority of the motivation to make a statement in this spot. This is a Tigers team that is clearly on the ascent, while the Buckeyes feel a bit like they’re jogging in place after a disappointing end to their regular season. Give me Missouri to pull the outright upset, so I’ll certainly take the free 5.5 points in this one.
We also have a Missouri vs Ohio State Same Game Parlay for the Cotton Bowl tonight
