Caleb Wilfinger
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After a long and grueling regular season, the college football postseason is finally here. I’ve gone 3-1 in these bowl season columns so far — bringing me to 28-20 (about 58.5%) since Week 2. I’ve said all season that some regression was to be expected after we cashed at an unsustainable 63% rate a year ago, but we’re off to a great start in bowl season, so let’s keep that momentum going!
With Christmas Day behind us, the third full week of Bowl season is here and we have a compelling slate ahead of us, including a ton of fun games at the Group of 5 and Power 5 level. With Tuesday’s games rapidly approaching, here is a look at my best bet for the trio of games at our disposal. And remember, you can check out all of our NCAAF predictions for picks on all of the action.
Kansas Jayhawks vs UNLV Rebels Over 65.5 (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 66.5
This has been a very eventful season for both of these programs. The UNLV Rebels had a season for the ages, greatly exceeding all preseason expectations on their way to a 9-4 campaign and an appearance in the Mountain West title game. The Rebels are a joy to watch on offense and don’t do much to stop anyone defensively. That makes for a fun team! On the other side, the Kansas Jayhawks took another step forward under head coach Lance Leipold as the brilliant coach continues to bring that program closer to national prominence. However, Kansas did lose star offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to Penn State earlier this month, which might be why this total opened in the low 60s. It has since been bet up, and for good reason.
For starters, Kansas went out and got Jeff Grimes to be the new offensive coordinator, and it was confirmed that he’ll have at least some input in the game plan for this matchup. Both teams can be expected to implement game plans that will make the opposing defensive coordinators lose sleep in preparation for this one. These are innovative offenses that use heavy rush and a large dose of pre-snap motion, making them extremely difficult to prepare for. UNLV is a top-10 team in EPA per rush on offense, while Kansas is 98th defensively in EPA per rush, per CFB-Graphs. The same holds true in the passing game, as the Jayhawks are 12th in EPA per pass while the Rebels are outside the top 100 in defensive pass EPA. I certainly lean toward Kansas in the game, given the talent edge the Jayhawks will have, plus Leipold at the helm. However, my favorite bet of the day is the over, so sit back, relax and enjoy what should be a fun one.
Make sure you also read our college football parlay for today’s bowl games at +626 odds!
