Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2022 college football regular season has drawn to a close and what a season it was. Now we’ve turned the page to bowl season, and we should have more great action in store over the next few weeks.
I finished the year with a 5-0 run on my best bets, which brought my 2022 record to 24-14-1 since Week 2. Let’s keep the momentum going in bowl season!
Bowl season continues on Saturday with a number of intriguing matchups featuring Power 5 and Group of 5 teams alike. Let’s take a look at our best bets for Saturday’s action.
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Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl pick: Fresno State Bulldogs -3.5 (-110) over Washington State Cougars
Washington State opened as the favorite for this game but the line quickly moved after coaching changes and transfers within the program were made public. Now without its defensive coordinator and key defensive contributors in linebackers Daiyan Henley, Travion Brown and Francisco Mauigoa, the Cougars are at a disadvantage on defense. They’ll also be without wide receivers De’Zhaun Stribling and Donovan Ollie, who were 2 of the top 3 leading receivers on the roster and combined for 8 touchdowns on the year. Fresno State has not had to deal with the same level of opt-outs, hence why the line has moved substantially toward the Bulldogs.
This offense is electric with a healthy Jake Haener at the helm, and that should continue on Saturday. Since he returned from an injury suffered in Week 3, Fresno State is averaging over 37 points per game, capturing the Mountain West title in the process. Fresno State has been solid defensively as well, ranking 44th in opposing drive efficiency per Football Outsiders, while maintaining a top-35 season-long rating in success rate per CFB Data. The same can’t be said of the Cougars, who are outside the top 90 in defensive success rate and lost to every bowl-eligible team they played except Wisconsin. Fresno State has the roster and motivation advantage here, so I’d back the Bulldogs up to -4.
Be sure to check out our full Fresno State vs Washington State predictions
Fenway Bowl pick: Cincinnati ML (+108) over Louisville Cardinals
These teams essentially mirror each other considering the wild last few weeks they’ve both experienced. For starters, Cincinnati’s head coach Luke Fickell has left for Wisconsin, a move that was to be expected. However, the Bearcats then hired former Louisville head coach, Scott Satterfield, the same team they are set to play in this bowl game. Satterfield is gone from Louisville and will be on the Cincinnati sidelines on Saturday, so that is enough to create some pre-game controversy. On top of that, this is the first college football game being played at Fenway Park, as the last 2 years saw cancellations due to Covid protocols.
Given all of the variance, this is a strange game to bet on, but I’m riding with Cincinnati. Malik Cunningham will not play for Louisville, as well as most of the Cardinals’ key pieces on offense. And while Ben Bryant is also not suiting up under center for the Bearcats, this offense isn’t reliant on dynamic quarterback play to succeed. Furthermore, the Bearcats’ defense is the strongest unit on the field, ranking 10th in passing success rate and 21st in net points per drive. In what should be a low-scoring affair, I’ll take the points with the ‘dog here.
Be sure to check out our full Louisville vs Cincinnati predictions
Miami Beach Bowl pick: Boise State vs North Texas Over 59 (-110)
While North Texas’s offense hasn’t been quite as prolific as it was at the start of the year, this is still a very strong unit. The Mean Green averaged nearly 34 points per game on the season, while averaging over 200 rushing yards per game. Boise State’s defense is extremely talented, but asking them to completely quell this offense is a tall order. North Texas is 20th in early downs EPA, which is generally more predictive of success, so I expect that to translate into this matchup as well.
Boise State prefers to keep the ball on the ground, but that should not stop them from scoring points in bunches on Saturday. The Broncos have amassed 28 or more points in 4 of their last 6 contests while continuing to produce big numbers, ranking in the top 30 in EPA per rush. Conference USA defenses are not the strongest, and that goes for North Texas as well. In fact, the Mean Green have been one of the worst units in the country defensively, sitting outside the top 100 in success rate and EPA margin. The over is the only way I can look in what should be a barnburner in Miami.
Be sure to check out our full North Texas vs Boise State predictions
NCAAF Saturday best bets mega parlay
Cincinnati ML (+108)
Fresno State -3.5 (-110)
Boise State vs North Texas Over 59 (-110)
Parlay odds: +664
We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.
