Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2022 college football regular season has drawn to a close and bowl games are close to wrapping up, too. I finished the regular season on a 5-0 run with my best bets, which brought my 2022 record to 24-14-1 since Week 2. Let’s keep the momentum going in the bowl games! Bowl season continues on Monday with a number of intriguing matchups, including the Rose Bowl and Cotton Bowl, among others. Let’s take a look at our best bets for Monday’s action.
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Cotton Bowl pick: Tulane ML (+110) over USC
It goes without saying that Tulane probably has more motivation to win this game. USC is dealing with some key opt-outs and injuries, including wide receiver Jordan Addison and a pair of key offensive lineman. Running back Travis Dye missed the last few weeks with an injury and Caleb Williams was clearly hobbled in the Trojans’ Pac-12 Championship loss. To make matters worse, the USC defense allowed over 39 points per game over its last 3 games. The Trojans allowed more than 220 rushing yards to Utah in their last game, which doesn’t bode well against Tulane running back Tyjae Spears, who is averaging 6.5 yards per carry with 15 rushing touchdowns. Tulane has only been an underdog twice this year, winning both games outright in those circumstances. Plus the Green Wave are 5-0 ATS on the road this year, so I like them to stay hot away from home.
Be sure to check out our full Tulane vs USC predictions
ReliaQuest Bowl pick: Mississippi State -2.5 (-110) over Illinois
Even at full strength, this matchup is a tough battle for Illinois. And while running back Chase Brown gets all the publicity, the Illini lean on defensive back Devon Witherspoon just as much. However, both have opted out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft alongside Witherspoon’s teammate in the secondary, Sydney Brown. Those are 3 huge departures and it’s going to be hard for the Illini to win without them. On the other side, Mississippi State is playing with a heavy heart in this one as its the first game since the tragic passing of head coach Mike Leach. Emotions will surely run high, but there’s no other team in bowl season that wants to cap off their campaign with a victory more than the Bulldogs.
Mississippi State’s high-octane passing attack should be on full display facing an Illinois secondary that is’t playing at full strength. The Bulldogs have scored 39+ points in 7 different contests this season and although Illinois has been one of the best defensive units all year long, there’s too much turnover on that side of the ball to trust this otherwise stout defense. Offensively, the Illini definitely don’t pose much of a threat, especially without Brown in the backfield. Mississippi State should be extremely motivated to close out the season strong here, and I expect them to do so.
Be sure to check out our full Mississippi State vs Illinois predictions
Citrus Bowl pick: LSU vs Purdue Over 54.5 (-110)
Recently head coach Jeff Brohm left Purdue to take the job at Louisville, but offensive coordinator Brian Brohm stuck around and will be the team’s interim head coach for this matchup. And while Purdue will be without plenty of pieces on offense, including its starting quarterback and 2 best wideouts, the pace of play should still be conducive for a bet on the over. Both teams rank inside the top 50 in plays per game and seconds per play, so I’m expecting plenty of scoring chances on Monday.
It may be tough to trust Purdue to score consistently considering the Boilermakers are starting a backup quarterback and a depleted receiving corps, but LSU should have plenty of success offensively regardless of how the Tigers’ defense plays. Purdue ranks outside the top 60 in opposing drive efficiency and touchdown rate per Football Outsiders, while LSU’s offense sits at 20th in drive efficiency and 27th in touchdown rate against much stronger competition for most of the season. Even with a total in the mid-50s, there’s a good chance we see this one sail over.
NCAAF Saturday best bets mega parlay
Tulane ML (+110)
Mississippi State -2.5 (-110)
LSU vs Purdue Over 54.5 (-110)
Parlay odds: +647
We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.
