Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2022 college football regular season has drawn to a close and what a season it was. Now we have turned the page to bowl season, and we should have more great action in store over the next week.
I finished the year with a 5-0 run on my best bets, which brought my 2022 record to 24-14-1 since Week 2. Let’s keep the momentum going in the bowl games! It continues on Saturday with a number of intriguing matchups, including the College Football Playoff. Let’s take a look at our best bets for Saturday’s action.
Be sure not to miss any of our college football analysis throughout the playoff season!
Sugar Bowl pick: Kansas State +7 (-110) vs Alabama
This is a game where motivation plays a big role in the handicap. On one side, you have a Kansas State team that is fresh off winning a Big 12 Championship to play in a New Year’s Six bowl game, a large accomplishment for a team that was picked to finish in the middle of the conference prior to the season. On the other side, Alabama enters this game with a pair of losses, each coming on the final play of their respective games. The Crimson Tide were expected to play for a National Championship this season but instead are playing in what is essentially a meaningless game for a program that’s used to being in the College Football Playoff. This just feels like a clear spot where the Wildcats have the motivational edge.
Originally, Will Anderson and Bryce Young were expected to sit this game out — which brought the line down 3 points from the opening number of 6. However, both players indicated recently that they would be playing — which obviously greatly improves Alabama’s chances of winning. Despite that, Alabama still has its holes on both sides of the ball. Most importantly, the Crimson Tide are 87th in rushing success rate — which could prove to be difficult in stoping a Kansas State offense that uses Deuce Vaughn as a runner and out of the backfield, where he’s lethal in space against opposing linebackers. Will Howard has led this Wildcats passing game to great success over the last 6 weeks, as Kansas State ranks 25th in EPA per pass during that span. This is a balanced team on both sides of the ball and I expect Alabama to be pushed to the limit in what should be a wonderful game.
Be sure to check out our full Kansas State vs Alabama predictions
Fiesta Bowl pick: TCU vs Michigan Under 58.5 (-110)
TCU has a strong ground game that is the basis of its offense. The Horned Frogs’ 201.7 rushing yards per game are the 19th most in the nation, and even QB Max Duggan plays a large role in that. Such success pounding the rock may make it seem as though the Horned Frogs should be able to put up plenty of points. However, that actually might not be the case against a stout Michigan defense. The Wolverines are allowing just 85.2 rushing yards per game, which is second in the country only to the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs’ rush defense. Therefore, I expect Michigan to remain stout as TCU tries to establish its ground game — which should ultimately just burn the clock.
Michigan is no stranger to rushing success, as well, averaging 243 rushing yards per game is good for the sixth-best mark in college football. Unfortunately, without the services of Blake Corum, the Wolverines ground game will likely be at least slightly less potent. Once again, it’s fair to expect Michigan to run the ball early and often in order to burn even more clock and establish the tempo of the game. I’m certainly not anticipating a shutout by either side, as points will come eventually. However, with the total sitting at nearly 60 points there is plenty of wiggle room for this one to go under.
Be sure to check out our full TCU vs Michigan predictions
Peach Bowl pick: Ohio State +6.5 (-110) vs Georgia
To round out our best bets for Saturday, it’s hard not to look at Ohio State in this College Football Playoff semifinal matchup. The Buckeyes are likely being undervalued based on the fact that we last saw them get dominated in the second half against Michigan. Since then, Ohio State has had 5 weeks to get healthy and prepare for a Georgia team that is inflated a bit in the market based on the Bulldogs’ performance over the last few years. After all, these teams aren’t all that different from a metrics perspective.
Ohio State is tops in the nation in EPA margin, in addition to being in the top 10 in pass and rushing success rate, along with EPA per pass and EPA per rush. This is a complete offensive unit that should be humming after an extended break from competitive action. On the other side, the Buckeyes’ defense wasn’t the issue that it was last season, as Ohio State ranks 11th in EPA per rush and rushing success rate, plus 9th in EPA per pass according to College Football Data. We know that Georgia’s defense is the best in the country against the run, but the Bulldogs can be had against the pass, ranking 22nd in EPA per pass on defense. If CJ Stroud can play a clean game, there’s no reason why Ohio State can’t keep things close. For teams that are fairly evenly matched on paper, this line should be closer to a 4.5-point margin.
Be sure to check out our full Ohio State vs Georgia predictions
NCAAF Saturday best bets mega parlay
Kansas State +6.5 (-110)
TCU vs Michigan Under 58.5 (-110)
Ohio State +6.5 (-110)
Parlay odds: +611
We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.
