Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2022 college football regular season has drawn to a close and what a season it was. Now we’ve turned the page to bowl season, and we should have more great action in store over the next few weeks.
I finished the year with a 5-0 run on my best bets, which brought my 2022 record to 24-14-1 since Week 2. Let’s keep the momentum going in bowl season!
Bowl season kicks off in full on Friday with a pair of intriguing matchups featuring Group of 5 stalwarts. Let’s take a look at our best bets for Friday’s action.
Be sure not to miss any of our college football analysis throughout the playoff season!
UTSA Roadrunners ML (+110) over Troy Trojans
One of the best matchups of bowl season happens to take place on Friday, as this explosive UTSA offense will try and break down an elite Troy defensive unit. I don’t expect motivation to be an issue for either side, especially with Frank Harris announcing his return at quarterback for the Roadrunners.
Harris is the engine behind this offense, as UTSA ranks top-10 in EPA per pass, passing success rate and offensive EPA margin. He’ll be throwing to a deep and talented core of wide receivers that should put serious pressure on Troy’s stout pass defense. But it’s the running game that should make the difference in this one, as the Roadrunners offense holds a considerable edge over the Trojans defense in that department. Considering Troy’s offense is below average in most metrics, it could be difficult for the Trojans to keep up in a potential shootout. I’ll take the plus-money price with UTSA in what should be a compelling football game.
Be sure to check out our full UTSA vs Troy predictions
UAB Blazers -10.5 (-110) over Miami OH RedHawks
Even though it’s hard to lay double digits in a game where the total is below 45, the Blazers have a significant talent edge on both sides of the ball. UAB’s offense is likely the best unit on the field, ranking 6th in EPA per rush, 12th in rush success rate and 28th in EPA per pass. The Blazers should see success against a Miami defense that is 90th in opponent pass success rate and EPA per pass. Furthermore, the RedHawks will be without starting quarterback Brett Gabbert as he continues to nurse a season-long injury. Without Gabbert at the controls, Miami’s offense has suffered mightily, ranking outside the top 100 in EPA per pass, EPA per rush, passing success rate and rush success rate. Seeing as this is the last chance the Blazers have to play for coach Bryant Vincent, UAB should be motivated in this spot.
Be sure to check out our full UAB vs Miami OH predictions
We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.
