Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2022 college football regular season has drawn to a close and what a season it was. Bowl season is now in full swing, so we should have more great action in store over the next few weeks.
I finished the regular season with a 5-0 run on my best bets, which brought my 2022 record to 24-14-1 since Week 2. Let’s keep the momentum going in bowl season!
The postseason festivities continue on Tuesday with a number of intriguing matchups featuring Power 5 and Group of 5 teams. Let’s take a look at our best bets for Tuesday’s action.
Be sure not to miss any of our college football analysis throughout the playoff season!
First Responder Bowl pick: Memphis Tigers -7 (+100) over Utah State Aggies
Memphis should be favored by double digits for this game. Yes, the Aggies picked themselves up and finished the season strongly after starting the year 1-4. However, each of Utah State’s losses came by at least 10 points in the regular season. This is a defensive unit that has allowed at least 28 points in 4 of the last 5 games, including 31+ in the last 3. On the other hand, Memphis played a much tougher schedule this season and still ended up with better metrics than Utah State. Showcasing one of the nation’s most prolific passing attacks, Seth Henigan and the Tigers threw for nearly 280 yards per game this season and were a top-40 passing offense.
Memphis plays with great pace and can score in bunches, as the Tigers were held under 26 points just twice all year and put up 35+ in 5 separate outings. Now going up against a Utah State defense that has struggled to stop anyone all season, this Tigers group should generate plenty of quality possessions. On the other side, the Aggies run the ball fairly efficiently, but defending the run is the best aspect of Memphis’ defensive unit, ranking 22nd in opponent EPA per rush. Memphis has covered in 3 straight outings while Utah State went 1-5 ATS in road games on the season. Look for a 10+ point victory for the Tigers.
Be sure to check out our full Memphis vs Utah State predictions
Birmingham Bowl pick: East Carolina Pirates team total over 36.5 (-120)
In another game that should feature plenty of offense, East Carolina’s offense should absolutely roll on Tuesday. This is the most consistent this Pirates offense has been under quarterback Holton Ahlers, and he’ll be facing a Coastal Carolina defense that can’t stop a nosebleed. This Chanticleers defensive unit is outside the top 100 in EPA per pass and net points per drive, along with sitting at 95th in success rate. That doesn’t bode well against East Carolina’s top-30 passing offense and top-20 ground attack. I expect a ton of possessions in this game, as East Carolina’s defense has some holes of its own that can be exploited. With that in mind, it’s hard not to like East Carolina to exceed their team total while it’s still under the key number of 37.
Be sure to check out our full East Carolina vs Coastal Carolina predictions
We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.
