Ricky Dimon
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Bad news: no more college football until the 2022 season. Good news: college basketball is ready to pick up the slack.
With football out now that we are entering mid-January, conference competition is heating up on the hardwood. The daily slates are suddenly a lot more intriguing on a consistent basis, and Wednesday is no exception. Five top 25 teams are taking the court, including Duke. A showdown between ranked teams pits Villanova against Xavier in a Big East battle.
Needless to say, there is more than enough to work with as we try to formulate a winning mega parlay. Yesterday’s cashed at +349 (one leg was postponed). Let’s keep it going and go even bigger today!
Clemson ML (+125)
Colorado State -4.5 (-110)
Maryland ML (+185)
Parlay odds: +1124
For this parlay we are going with two underdogs on the money line and one favorite against the spread. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Clemson ML over Notre Dame (+125)
The Irish have won three straight conference games, but it is Clemson that is the recommended side in this game. Both squads are very good on the offensive end, each ranking in the top-40 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric. The defenses are not quite as strong, but it’s how the Tigers’ defense matches up against the Notre Dame offense that tips the scales in their favor. Notre Dame’s offense is built on its pick-and-roll, which it runs at the 14th-highest rate in the country. The Irish are also very potent in pick-and-roll settings, ranking in the 88th percentile on those play types per Synergy. However, Clemson is an excellent pick-and-roll defense — ranking in the 98th percentile.
Clemson ironically just played NC State — which runs pick-and-roll at the highest frequency in the country — and held the Wolfpack to just 0.89 points per possession. If the Tigers can disrupt Notre Dame’s offense, they have the shooting to take advantage of a Notre Dame half-court defense that ranks in just the 17th percentile. Clemson likely won’t shoot above 40 percent from three for the whole season, but it’s clear that the Tigers can shoot the basketball.
Check out our Clemson vs Notre Dame preview
Colorado State -4.5 over Utah State (-110)
Despite losing its most recent game by 30 points, Colorado State is the recommended side against the spread. In fact, part of the rationale behind backing the Rams is that the loss has presented a slightly cheaper line against Utah State. As a result of that bludgeoning by San Diego State, Colorado State fell from 39th to 52nd in KenPom’s rankings and subsequently lost some favor with oddsmakers.
We now have a buy-low spot to back the Rams on Wednesday. From a matchup perspective this game has all indications of being a shootout, as both teams rank in the top-50 in offensive efficiency. The area where the Rams might have the edge is from beyond the arc, as they own the sixth-highest three-point percentage in the country. Utah State’s defense is hard to beat inside the arc, but it is vulnerable on the perimeter.
Check out all our college basketball previews and picks for Wednesday
Maryland ML over Northwestern (+185)
What a weird season for the Maryland Terrapins. They are 0-4 in the Big Ten, but none of those losses are terrible. The Terps don’t have much depth, but they can put out a lineup that can compete in the league — hence a 1-point loss to Wisconsin in their last game and a 5-point loss at Iowa. Transfers Fatts Russell and Qudus Wahab have not given them as much as they expected. There is still time to turn things around, though. These teams met in their Big Ten opener in December and Northwestern got the win.
It was a bit of a bizarre game, as the Terps were just terrible inside the arc (19%) — so bad that you have to wonder if the Wildcats are really the better team despite winning. You have to think 19 percent from two is never going to happen again. The ‘Cats have also lost all of their conference games, including a bad home loss to Penn State. If the Terps had won that first game against the Wildcats, they would probably be favored to beat them again – even on the road. They were simply terrible and still almost won. They should in the rematch.
Check out our Maryland vs Northwestern preview
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