Ricky Dimon
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Wednesdays are for college basketball. Sure, there are also plenty of NBA and NHL games, but as the calendar turns to February the NCAA hardwood action is really heating up in advance of March Madness. A total of 6 ranked teams are taking the court this evening, including #1 Purdue and #2 Tennessee. We also have an all-top 25 showdown on our hands between Providence and Xavier.
Let’s take a look at my 3-team college basketball mega parlay for Wednesday.
Providence ML (+146)
North Carolina -8.5 (-110)
Georgia +12 (-110)
Parlay odds: +797
For this parlay, we are going with 2 favorites against the spread and 1 underdog on the money line. Here is a breakdown of each leg.
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Providence ML over Xavier (+146)
The big news – and bad news for Xavier — heading into this Big East battle is that Zach Freemantle (foot) will be sidelined (not only for this game but also for at least a month). Freemantle leads the team in usage and field-goal attempts, so his absence is sure to be felt considering Xavier has a very shallow bench with just 6 other players getting meaningful minutes in conference play. His size and ability to stretch the floor would have been a great asset against Providence, which is in the midst of a 3-game winning streak.
The Friars are more than capable of testing the Musketeers’ depth without Freemantle. Providence is physical and creates a lot of contact, earning trips to the free-throw line at a very high rate (16th nationally in free-throw attempts per game). Bryce Hopkins, Devin Carter and Ed Crosswell all draw at least 4.6 fouls per 40 minutes (KenPom). Don’t be surprised if the Friars win this one outright.
Check out all of our college basketball picks for tonight’s action
North Carolina -8.5 over Pittsburgh (-110)
In the first head-to-head matchup, North Carolina let a 9-point second-half lead slip away; the Panthers came from behind to earn a 76-74 home victory. Aside from a late collapse, the Tar Heels should take heart – in addition to the revenge factor – from that performance. They led most of the way and got a balanced scoring effort, spreading 48 points across Armando Bacot, RJ Davis and Pete Nance. That loss seemed to kickstart the Heels, especially defensively. They have lost just once since the game in Pittsburgh — at Virginia — and have allowed more than 70 points just once over their last 7 contests.
UNC performs much better defensively at home, too, holding opponents to a mere 41.6 shooting percentage inside the Dean Dome. North Carolina is undefeated at home in ACC play, winning by an average of 12.2 points per game.
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Georgia +12 over Auburn (-110)
Georgia matches up well with Auburn and has already proven it this season. The Bulldogs hosted the Tigers on January 4, prevailing 76-64 in front of the home crowd. Why do the Dawgs inspire confidence in this particular matchup? Well, the Tigers are one of the best press defenses in the entire country — ranking in the 99th percentile when they choose to use their press. They have the depth and athleticism to press regularly, so they have pressed at a top-100 rate this season.
Georgia leads the entire country in points per possession against press defenses, which was a big reason why it beat Auburn by double-digits in the previous head-to-head encounter. In that game, UGA scored 1.56 points per possession against Auburn’s press defense. The Tigers may get revenge, but the Dawgs should keep it close.
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