Caleb Wilfinger
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It’s a loaded Wednesday slate in college basketball as programs big and small are taking the court for another jam-packed day of hoops. With so many exciting games, I’ve combed through the board and found a few edges that I believe can create a parlay with an excellent payout of better than 8/1 odds!
Let’s take a look at my 3-team mega parlay for Wednesday, but make sure you also check out our college basketball picks for the day’s biggest games.
Penn State -4.5 (-110)
Seton Hall ML (+150)
Utah State -1 (-110)
Parlay odds: +811
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Penn State Nittany Lions -4.5 (-110) over Wisconsin Badgers
Desperate times call for desperate measures, and Penn State might need to pull out all the stops on Wednesday if the Nittany Lions want to remain in the NCAA Tournament picture. This Penn State team was on the right side of the bubble heading into last week’s games before suffering consecutive defeats to Purdue and Nebraska on the road. The loss to the Cornhuskers was especially concerning given that the Nittany Lions were thoroughly outplayed by one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. Now, with most bracketologists having Penn State sitting on the outside looking, this matchup becomes a must-win situation against a fellow bubble team.
Fortunately, the Nittany Lions are at home — where they are a demonstratively better team this season. Penn State is 11-2 at the Bryce Jordan Center on the year, including emphatic victories over Indiana and Michigan most recently. This is still a team that sits at 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency via KenPom and shoots much better from beyond the 3-point arc on its home floor. Wisconsin plays at a very slow tempo, which should keep it in the game if Penn State is consistently missing shots. However, if the Nittany Lions are executing their offense then the Badgers won’t have the firepower to keep up. Back a desperate Penn State team to pick up a much-needed victory at home.
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Seton Hall Pirates ML (+150) over Creighton Blue Jays
Creighton is a team that I’ll be looking to back a lot as we near the home stretch of this season. The Bluejays have found their rhythm after the return of Ryan Kalkbrenner, rattling off 6 straight wins and looking dominant at home. However, we are nearing the peak of the market for this Jays team and Wednesday presents a tricky road spot against Seton Hall.
Winners of 3 straight and 7 of their last 8 games, the Pirates have been getting it done with their stifling defense. Seton Hall is 14th in defensive efficiency per KenPom and sits outside the top 250 in tempo, so that should help limit Creighton’s opportunities in transition and limit the number of possessions in this one. The Jays are also coming off a close victory over Villanova and have both UConn and Providence on deck, so this could be a look-ahead spot for head coach Greg McDermott’s team. I think this one comes down to the wire, so I’ll take the plus money with Seton Hall.
Utah State Aggies -1 (-110) over San Diego State Aztecs
To close out this mega parlay I’m heading out west for a massive game in the Mountain West Conference. These are the top 2 teams in the conference and will be a massive decider in who wins the regular-season crown. Fortunately for Utah State, the Aggies will have the advantage of playing at home in front of one of the most underrated environments in college basketball. Utah State’s offense is elite, sitting at 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom and BartTorvik — which is by far one of the best units San Diego State’s stout defense has had to face all season. The Aztecs are a very good team but a little streakier on the road than at home. San Diego State’s last road game resulted in a blowout loss to Nevada, and I expect the Aztecs to struggle away from home once again in this spot.
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