Ricky Dimon
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It was another quiet Monday in college basketball (Big Monday won’t start until later in the season, once it doesn’t have to compete with Monday Night Football), but this week’s hardwood slate is heating up on Tuesday with a ton of games – 8 of which feature top 25 teams. It includes an intriguing showdown between Alabama and Memphis, while Duke, Houston, Auburn, Texas, and Texas Tech are also taking the court.
Needless to say, there is plenty to work with as we try to formulate a winning mega parlay.
Wake Forest -15.5 (-110)
Alabama -9.5 alternate spread (+220)
North Alabama vs Auburn Over 139.5 (-110)
Parlay odds: +1066
For this parlay we are going with two favorites against the spread (one on an alternate spread) in addition to an over play. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Wake Forest -15.5 over VMI (-110)
The Keydets are always a high-variance team because they are the epitome of “live and die with the 3”, but there’s reason to believe this could be a game in which that approach costs them. Under second-year head coach Steve Forbes, Wake Forest is embracing the defensive identity of his East Tennessee State teams. The starting backcourt of Alondes Williams and Davien Williamson has done a good job forcing opponents into tough shots. Per ShotQuality data, Wake Forest ranks 35th in defensive shot quality — much better than its KenPom defensive efficiency mark of 69th. This seems to indicate that the Demon Deacons’ opponents are making an unusually large amount of tough shots against them, which could start to regress into poorer shooting. VMI never boasts a particularly good defense; and this year is no exception. The Keydets rank 308th in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency, primarily because they don’t really make their opponents uncomfortable. VMI ranks 351st in defensive turnover rate and 318th in defensive 3-point attempt rate, which suggests that its perimeter defensive strategy is just let the opponent shoot, hope for miss, and then go play offense. That won’t work against a Wake Forest team that is currently shooting 36.1% from beyond the arc.
Check out our VMI vs Wake Forest preview
Alabama -9.5 alternate spread over Memphis (+220)
Memphis dropped to 5-4 on the season after losing to Murray State 74-72 on Saturday. That handed the Tigers their fourth consecutive loss after starting 5-0, when they were ranked as high as No. 9 in the country. Star freshman Emoni Bates had just 9 points on 3-for-7 shooting against the Racers. This team has not lived up to the preseason hype, losing its past 3 games to much inferior opponents. Head coach Penny Hardaway and the Tigers will have a chance to flip their season around as Alabama comes to town. It will be extremely tough for Memphis to pull off a win against Alabama, which is coming off wins against Gonzaga and Houston and is up to No. 6 in the rankings. The Crimson Tide are 8-1 on the season. Junior guard Jaden Shackelford has been awesome, averaging 19.1 points and 6.9 rebounds. Head coach Nate Oats has the Tide playing at an elite level, so they could win big against a struggling Memphis team.
Check out our Alabama vs Memphis preview
North Alabama vs Auburn Over 139.5 (-110)
It’s entirely possible that Auburn reaches 100 points in this game, so you have to feel good about the over. Neither team spends too much time in terms of average offensive possession length per KenPom, meaning we should see a fast-paced game. North Alabama has been pressing this year in hopes of forcing turnovers. Pressing a team like Auburn is a bad idea, as not only are the Tigers sure-handed with the ball but they also have much better athletes than North Alabama. This could result in quite a few Tiger layups once they break the press. Even if Auburn misses its first shot during a possession, second-chance buckets should be plentiful thanks to the home team’s offensive rebounding prowess combined with North Alabama’s defensive rebounding futility. Auburn has plenty of depth, ranking 60th in bench minutes per KenPom. This could help with the over, as players will be fresh for pretty much the whole game and there won’t be a huge drop-off in talent when the Tigers turn to the bench. North Alabama may not even have to score much for this to go over.
Check out all our college basketball previews and picks for Tuesday
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