Ricky Dimon
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The college basketball regular season is over. NCAA Tournament bids are already being handed out. March Madness is here – at least in the form of a precursor to the madness of the Big Dance. On Tuesday we not only have some mid-major conference tournament action but the big boys are also joining the party in in the form of the ACC Tournament.
Let’s take a look at our three-team mega parlay for Tuesday.
Jacksonville ML (+120)
South Dakota State -9.5 alternate spread (+175)
Gonzaga -12.5 (-110)
Parlay odds: +1055
For this parlay we are going with two favorites against the spread – one on an alternate number – and one underdog on the money line. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Jacksonville ML over Bellarmine (+120)
Jacksonville finished the season with an 11-5 league record and upset top-seeded Jacksonville State in the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament semifinals this past weekend. The Dolphins held Jacksonville State to just 51 total points and held the favorites to 22.2 percent shooting from 3-point land. Jax is now 1 win away from punching its ticket to the NCAA Tournament.
Bellarmine finished the season with a 19-13 overall record and an 11-5 Atlantic Sun record. This conference championship is a bizarre scenario because Bellarmine is not eligible for this year’s NCAA Tournament because it recently moved from Division II to Division I basketball and the NCAA will not let teams participate in the Big Dance without taking 5 years off. Due to this, Jacksonville is in the NCAA Tournament with a win but Jacksonville State makes the field with a Bellarmine victory. This is a great bounce-back spot for the Dolphins after they barely lost to Bellarmine earlier in the season in overtime.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Bellarmine Knights vs Jacksonville Dolphins
South Dakota State -9.5 alternate spread over North Dakota State (+175)
It’s no surprise to see South Dakota State in the Summit League final. The Jackrabbits went undefeated in conference play this year and were huge favorites to earn the NCAA Tournament bid in the futures market. North Dakota State was obviously swept by South Dakota State in the regular season, but both losses came by just 4 points. The final scores of those games are clearly very close but also a bit misleading when examining the box scores.
In the first game, South Dakota State led 69-49 in the second half before a furious comeback from the Bison to make the final score appear much closer. In the second game, South Dakota State led by 9 points with 21 seconds left before ending at 4. Nine points isn’t a blowout by any means, but it’s worth noting that South Dakota State shot just 1-for-12 from 3 in that game. Calling that performance an outlier is an understatement, as South Dakota State leads the entire country in 3-point percentage at 44.3 percent. Count on the Jackrabbits completing the season sweep with relative ease.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs North Dakota State Bison
Gonzaga -12.5 over Saint Mary’s (-110)
Gonzaga is playing in its 25th straight West Coast Conference championship game. Yes, you read that correctly: 25 straight appearances in its conference title game. Say what you want about the strength of the WCC, but that is quite an impressive accomplishment for the Bulldogs. Saint Mary’s is no stranger to the WCC championship game either, as the Gaels have won 3 WCC titles in 9 appearances against Gonzaga since 2009.
To get to this point, Saint Mary’s had to get past Santa Clara in the semifinals. The Gaels led 53-38 with 14:09 to play in what looked to be an easy victory, but the Broncos stormed back late in the game. Santa Clara eventually cut the deficit to 1 point with under 1 minute to play but could not finish the job and the Gaels escaped with a 75-72 win.
Since the 2017-2018 season, Gonzaga has lost just 4 conference games; 3 of those have come to Saint Mary’s. However, the Zags have not lost more than 1 conference game (including tournament) in the same year since the 2015-2016 campaign. While Saint Mary’s did win at home against Gonzaga on February 26, it’s unlikely to happen again at a neutral sit. Look for the Zags to get revenge in a convincing manner.
Check out all our college basketball previews and picks for Tuesday
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