Ricky Dimon
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Week 14 in the NFL may have center stage on Sunday, but don’t forget about college basketball. A busy weekend on the hardwood is wrapping up in style, with Purdue, Gonzaga, Baylor, Villanova, Florida State, and Oregon among those taking the court. Needless to say, there is more than enough to work with as we try to form a mega parlay winner.
Monmouth -2 (-110)
Kansas State -19.5 (-110)
Florida -9.5 (+155)
Parlay odds: +829
For this parlay we are going with three favorites against the spread (one on an alternate spread). Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Monmouth -2 over Pittsburgh (-110)
Monmouth is one of two teams in the country that are still undefeated against the spread. This is a good matchup for the Hawks, so expect for that ATS streak to continue after this game. Monmouth is an excellent three-point shooting team, ranking 28th nationally in percentage. This is key against Pitt’s compact defense that ranks 317th in denying three-point attempts. Shavar Reynolds, Marcus McClary, and George Papas all shoot better than 40 percent from three, so expect to see the Hawks do damage from beyond the arc in this game. On the other end of the court, Monmouth’s strong interior defense should provide a challenge for Pitt’s offense. Monmouth ranks 57th in field-goal percentage defense at the rim, so Pitt’s rim-attack offense stands to struggle. Pitt gets just 21.2 percent of their points from the three-point line, which ranks 344th in the country. The goal of their offense is to get easy buckets near the rim, and also draw fouls. Against Monmouth, this will likely be challenging for them.
Check out our Monmouth vs Pittsburgh preview
Kansas State -19.5 over Green Bay (-110)
It’s a big number, but Kansas State is the recommendation in this game. The Wildcat defense is the primary reason for this, as they should completely suffocate Green Bay’s offense. Kansas State ranks 44th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, while Green Bay ranks just 303rd in offensive efficiency. It’s not just the overall picture that is a total mismatch, but the schematic matchup is problematic for Green Bay as well. In order to beat Kansas State’s defense, you need to be able to shoot the three. Kansas State is so good at defending near the rim, ranking 19th in shots allowed and 80th in percentage allowed at the rim. This does make them susceptible from the three-point line, but Green Bay is one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country at just 26 percent. Wisconsin is a similar defense to Kansas State’s, and we saw Green Bay score just 34 points in that matchup. It’s unlikely they finish with a point total that low, but it would be a surprise to see them reach 60. On the other end, Kansas State’s offense isn’t great. The Wildcats rank just 125th in offensive efficiency, but it’s possible they will get some help with the return of Nijel Pack. Pack has missed the last two games due to a concussion, but head coach Bruce Weber hopes to have him back for this one.
Check out our Green Bay vs Kansas State preview
Florida -9.5 alternate spread over Maryland (+155)
Maryland is coming off a 67-61 loss to Northwestern at home a week ago. The Terrapins enter tonight’s game on a 3-game losing streak. Senior guard Eric Ayala currently leads the team in scoring with 13.1 ppg, while Rhode Island transfer Fatts Russell has acclimated well — scoring 12.1 ppg so far. The visiting Gators are coming off of an 85-55 win over North Florida at home on Wednesday night. Senior Colin Castleton has lived up to his preseason expectations, as he currently leads the team with 15.7 ppg, 9.3 rpg, and 2.8 bpg. Florida will be playing in its 3rd game of the week, while Maryland will be playing its first game in a week. The Terrapins will inevitably struggle offensively against a Gator team that ranks 8th in all of college basketball in defensive efficiency and is holding their opponents to less than 60.0 ppg. Maryland parted ways from head coach Mark Turgeon earlier this month and things may get worse before they get better.
Check out all our college basketball previews and picks for Sunday
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