Ricky Dimon
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It’s Super Bowl weekend, but don’t forget about college basketball. Like all other sports, this one does not want to compete with the end of the NFL season. Thus a majority of teams will be taking the court on Saturday instead of on Super Bowl Sunday. A whopping 21 programs in the top 25 are playing games, including 3 all-ranked showdowns: Texas-Baylor, Saint Mary’s-Gonzaga, and UCLA-USC.
Let’s take a look at our three-team mega parlay for Saturday’s festivities.
Houston -10 (-110)
Arkansas ML (+180)
Iowa State -7 alternate spread over TCU (+120)
Parlay odds: +1076
For this parlay we are going with two favorites against the spread – one on an alternate number – and an underdog on the money line. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Houston -10 over Memphis (-110)
Houston’s 12-game winning streak was snapped on Wednesday when it lost to SMU 85-83 on the road. That was just the Cougars’ 3rd loss and only their 3rd time allowing an opponent to score at least 75 points. But that was an outlier for the Houston defense. The Cougars boast the 4th-best opposing effective FG% in the country and are rated as the 14th-most efficient defense by KenPom. Furthermore, they have held opponents to fewer than 0.90 points per possession this season. Returning home should provide the Houston defense with a nice boost. The Cougars hold opponents to 53.1 ppg on an astounding 33.2% shooting from the field in their home games and have held their previous 5 home opponents to an average of 53.2 ppg. Memphis comes into this game on a 4-game winning streak, but finds itself in a tough spot facing Houston off a loss. Since the start of the 2019-2020 campaign, Houston has won by double-digits in 7 out of 9 home games that followed a road loss.
Check out our Memphis vs Houston preview
Arkansas ML over Alabama (+180)
Arkansas is flying high. The Razorbacks have won 9 in a row, including a home upset of top-ranked Auburn in their last game. As a reference point, Auburn has already beaten Alabama twice this season. The Crimson Tide had a relatively easy time in their last game, beating up Ole Miss. They are more than capable of beating good teams (Gonzaga, Houston) but they play only one way this season and when it is not working they are in trouble. The key is the outside shooting. They only make 31% as a team and that number has to be better than that for them to beat good teams. Arkansas is the better team and should avoid a letdown following its win over Auburn because it will keep its edge on the road. An upset is very possible.
Check out our Arkansas vs Alabama preview
Iowa State -7 alternate spread over Kansas State (+120)
This is a good spot to buy the Cyclones, as they return home to Hilton Coliseum following 3 straight losses. They have a good chance for them to find an offensive rhythm, as Kansas State’s defense ranks 9th in Big 12 play. The defensive end of the court is where Iowa State will likely win this game, as it has done for much of this season. The Cyclones’ defense matches up extremely well with Kansas State’s offense, as they are elite in pick-and-roll defense. Per Synergy, Iowa State ranks in the 96th percentile in pick-and-roll defense — which is great news when facing Kansas State. The Wildcats run pick-and-roll at the 18th-highest rate in the country, so if Iowa State can shut that down then KSU will be hard-pressed to generate offense. Look for the Cyclones win and cover, possibly with ease.
Check out all our college basketball previews and picks for Saturday
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