Ricky Dimon
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Saturdays are huge during the college basketball regular season and nothing changes when it comes to conference championship week. The ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12 are all in action – some in the semifinals and others in finals. Kentucky, Arizona, UCLA, Kansas, and Duke are among those taking the court. You don’t have wait until next week’s NCAA Tournament to enjoy some madness right now!
Let’s take a look at our three-team mega parlay for Saturday.
Boise State ML (+125)
Kansas -2.5 (-110)
Arizona -5.5 alternate spread (+165)
Parlay odds: +1038
For this parlay we are going with two favorites against the spread – one on an alternate number – and one underdog on the money line. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Boise State ML over San Diego State (+125)
The Aztecs are quietly on a 6-game winning streak as we head into this game against the Mountain West regular-season champion. San Diego State advanced the championship after defeating Colorado State 63-58 last night. Their defense was stellar once again as they held Colorado State to just 58 points and forced the Rams to shoot just 28.6 percent from beyond the arc. San Diego State boasts one of the best defenses in the entire country but will need to improve their offense if they want to make noise in the Big Dance.
Boise State defeated Wyoming 68-61 in the first semifinal game to advance to the conference championship. The Broncos are 26-7 on the season and secured a Mountain West Conference regular season title after finishing 15-3 in the league. They were able to sweep San Diego State throughout the regular season, and I think Boise State continues their magically season beating them once again today. San Diego State’s defense can keep them in any game they play but their offense is not consistent enough to beat this well-rounded Boise team. Boise State went on the road and defeated San Diego State back on January 22 by holding them to just 37 points.
Check out our Boise State vs San Diego State preview
Kansas -2.5 over Texas Tech (-110)
These 2 schools split their regular-season meetings, with each team notching a win on their home court. Kansas is currently pegged as a short -2.5 favorite in Saturday night’s championship and is the recommended side to cover the spread. Despite Texas Tech sporting the Big 12’s most-efficient defense per KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, the Jayhawks can do enough on the offensive end of the floor to defeat Texas Tech. The Red Raiders’ no-middle defense has led them to rank 1st in the conference in defensive 2-point scoring rate, allowing opponents to connect on just 43.4% of their attempts.
While Tech has a smothering interior defense, they are susceptible from the perimeter. The Red Raiders have allowed the highest volume of 3-point attempts against them, while opponents have connected on 33% of those looks (7th in Big 12). Kansas ranks 1st in the Big 12 in 3-point scoring rate, making 35.6% of their 3-point attempts. Kansas’ inside-out offensive attack will stress the Red Raiders for 40 minutes. Jayhawks big man David McCormack will be able to neutralize Texas Tech big man Bryson Williams, forcing the Tech guards to step up. The Red Raiders backcourt hasn’t been great by any means. Texas Tech’s offense hasn’t been nearly as efficient as their defense, which is a cause for concern on the championship stage. The Red Raiders are coming off a 56-point output in their semifinal win over Oklahoma. They may not have enough firepower to prevent Kansas from snagging another Big 12 title.
Check out our Kansas vs Texas Tech preview
Arizona -5.5 alternate spread over UCLA (+165)
The UCLA Bruins and the Arizona Wildcats will play on Saturday night for the Pac-12 Tournament title. This should be a great championship game since it features the top 2 seeds in the tournament and because these teams split during the regular season where the home team won both meetings. UCLA is on a 5-game winning streak since their 68-63 lost to Oregon on February 24. The Bruins beat USC twice throughout their win streak and will look to win the season series against Arizona with a win on Saturday. The Bruins are a great team ranked in the top 15 nationally…but Arizona is even better.
Arizona is 30-3 on the season and is seeking a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They got their revenge on Colorado yesterday after suffering a blowout loss to them at the end of February. Kerr Kriisa did not play in that game and will most likely be out for this game again as he entered the stadium with a boot and crutches yesterday. That injury to Kriisa did not slow down Arizona’s offense as they dropped 82 points on 52 percent shooting in the semifinal game. These 2 teams have been the best in the league throughout the whole season, but Arizona has been on another level compared to the rest of the conference. They won the regular season title by 3 games and should get another championship ring here. I think UCLA will have trouble scoring inside in this one and that will be the difference in the game. Arizona ranks No. 1 in 2-point percentage and will likely dominate inside the paint.
Check out all our college basketball previews and picks for Saturday
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