Ricky Dimon
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The weekend in college basketball tips off with a sizable Friday slate – something you don’t generally see during the heart of the season. In the early stages, though, you never know what you are going to get on any given day. Tonight we have a showdown between Villanova and Michigan State headlining the schedule, while Virginia is facing Baylor and a rivalry matchup pits Florida against Florida State.
Let’s take a look at my 3-team mega parlay.
Xavier ML (+125)
Michigan State -9.5 alternate spread (+145)
Texas Southern vs Auburn over 148 (-110)
Parlay odds: +952
For this parlay we are going with 1 underdog on the money line, 1 favorite against an alternate spread and an over play. Here is a breakdown of each leg.
Xavier ML over Indiana (+125)
This shapes up to be a great Big 10 vs Big East matchup. Indiana comes in with a 2-0 record after beating Bethune-Cookman and Morehead State with ease. Head coach Mike Woodson has plenty of talent on his hands, but the Hoosiers may be overhyped just a bit this season based on talent instead of results. Their 2021-22 campaign was mediocre. Meanwhile, Xavier had only 3 departures from last season’s squad that won 23 games and captured the NIT title. This Musketeer team boasts 2 big men in Zach Freemantle and Jack Nunge, who can slow down Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis better than most teams in the country. Xavier projects to be a sleeper team in the Big East under first-year head coach Sean Miller. The Musketeers can win this game outright.
Check out our full Indiana vs Xavier predictions
Michigan State -9.5 alternate spread over Villanova (+145)
Michigan State has already played 2 of the best games of the season. It comes in a 2-1 record and is battle-tested to the max against tough competition. Head coach Tom Izzo’s team thrashed Northern Arizona, lost to 2nd-ranked Gonzaga 64-63 and then toppled 4th-ranked Kentucky earlier this week. The Spartans may not be ranked in the top 25 – yet – but they are playing stellar basketball on both ends of the floor in the early stages of the 2022-23 campaign.
Villanova is also 2-1 but hasn’t been anywhere near as impressive. The Wildcats have posted unspectacular wins over La Salle and Delaware State to go along with a loss to Temple. Justin Moore, who tore an Achilles’ tendon in the NCAA Tournament last season, remains sidelined. Five-star freshman Cam Whitmore underwent thumb surgery in mid-October and is not expected to play. Early-season growing pains would be understandable for the ‘Cats, especially with the Jay Wright era having ended (Kyle Neptune is the new head coach). With home-court advantage to boot, don’t be surprised if Michigan State prevails by double-digits.
Check out all of our college basketball predictions
Texas Southern vs Auburn over 148 (-110)
This should be a game with lots of possessions. Both teams rank in the upper half of Division I in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric — Texas Southern 91st and Auburn 112th. The Tigers may be just warming up to start the season, as they finished the 2021-22 campaign ranked 42nd in tempo. From a matchup perspective, Auburn should be able to punish Texas Southern on the offensive glass. The Tigers are 2nd nationally in offensive rebound rate per KenPom, while Texas Southern ranks 191st in defensive rebounding rate. That should allow for Auburn to get numerous 2nd-chance opportunities and it will likely convert a large majority. It is also worth noting that 5-star freshman Chance Westry is now healthy, which will boost the Tigers’ offensive arsenal.
Check out our full Texas Southern vs Auburn predictions
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