Ricky Dimon
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The calendar has turned from November to December and that means conference play is starting to get underway. Friday features a pair of ACC contests, with Wake Forest visiting Clemson and NC State hosting Pittsburgh. In the Big Ten, Illinois is going up against Maryland. But the most enticing matchup of all on Friday is a non-conference contest, as the #6 Baylor Bears and #14 Gonzaga Bulldogs square off at the Peacock Classic in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. It’s a rematch of the 2020-21 National Championship game.
Let’s take a look at my 3-team mega parlay for Friday.
Pittsburgh vs NC State Over 146.5 (-110)
Baylor ML (+135)
Maryland -5 alternate spread (+145)
Parlay odds: +999
For this parlay we are going with 1 favorite against an alternate spread, 1 underdog on the money line and an under play. Here is a breakdown of each leg.
Pittsburgh vs NC State over 146.5 (-110)
The Panthers seem to have vastly improved offensively this year compared to last year, as they have scored an average of 80.6 points per game during their winning streak with an obvious improvement in their jump shooting. Per Synergy, the Panthers are scoring 1.011 points per possession on their jump shots, up from 0.906 last year, which should continue against the NC State Wolfpack on Friday evening.
The Wolfpack have been solid defensively overall, but they leave a bit to be desired when contesting opposing jumpers. For reference, they allow 1.105 points per possession against opposing jump shots — which is a prevalent piece of the Pitt game plan this year. When NC State has the ball, it loves to push the pace. Per Hoop-Math, the Wolfpack rank in the top 35 in percentage of initial field-goal attempts in transition and percentage of total field-goal attempts in transition. It’s the over for me.
Check out our full Pittsburgh vs NC State predictions
Baylor ML over Gonzaga (+135)
These teams have similar narratives so far this season. Both are 5-2 and have fallen in the rankings after opening in the top 5. They each boast impressive wins and each has endured head-scratching losses. They are also the #1 and #2 offensive teams in the country so far, so they both play up-tempo and efficient offense.
Gonzaga posted solid wins over Kentucky and Michigan State but was worked over pretty good by both Texas and Purdue. Baylor has pounded all of its mid-major opponents and it has a nice win over UCLA. The Bears were also edged out by Virginia and they were run out of the gym at Marquette earlier this week. That was probably an aberration as opposed to the rule, however. The Zags’ struggles against elite programs are concerning and when you can get +135 ML odds on what looks like an even matchup it’s an opportunity that should be taken.
Check out our full Baylor vs Gonzaga predictions
Maryland -5 alternate spread over Illinois (+145)
Illinois lost star center Kofi Cockburn and 5-year point guard Trent Frazier in the offseason. The Fighting Illini are currently 6-1, with their only setback coming to Virginia inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas at the Roman Main Event. Transfer Terrance Shannon Jr. looks like an early pick for an All-American and Illinois is once again one of the favorites to win the conference. This Illini team is legit, but so is Maryland — which will be looking to defend its home court. The Xfinity Center will be rocking, especially since the fans have to be enthused by their team’s 7-0 start to Kevin Willard’s first season as head coach.
The Terrapins are now ranked 22nd in the AP poll and have big wins against Saint Louis and Miami already on their resume. Four-year player Donta Scott looks like an All-Big Ten player so far, averaging 15.9 points and 6.4 rebounds through 7 games. He is a matchup nightmare and I expect him to have success in this game just like he did against Illinois last season. In those 2 H2H matchups he scored 25 and 17 points while leading the Terrapins to an 81-65 win in College Park that followed a competitive loss on the road. Fear the Turtle.
Check out all of our college basketball predictions
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